Freeport-McMoRan sube 2.5% en medio de un rally de precios de cobre y una furia de tarifas

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $51.905, up 2.5% intraday
• Intraday high hits $52.29, matching 52-week peak
• Copper prices top $12,000/ton as mine outages and US tariff speculation tighten supply
Freeport-McMoRan’s sharp intraday rally aligns with a historic surge in copper prices driven by mine disruptions and geopolitical trade tensions. With the London Metal Exchange benchmark breaching $12,000/ton for the first time, FCX’s production scale and cost discipline position it to capitalize on tightening fundamentals. The stock’s 2.5% gain reflects both immediate supply-side pressures and long-term demand tailwinds from electrification and AI infrastructure.

Copper’s $12,000 Milestone Fuels Mining Sector Volatility
FCX’s 2.5% intraday surge directly correlates with copper prices hitting a record $12,000/ton on the LME, driven by three key factors: 1) Severe mine outages in Chile, Indonesia, and Peru have reduced global output by 8-12%; 2) US President Trump’s tariff agenda has triggered pre-emptive stockpiling, with record copper imports into American warehouses; 3) Zero treatment charges agreed by Chinese smelters for 2026 highlight structural supply constraints. These dynamics have amplified FCX’s exposure to copper’s price action, with its 31.09 P/E ratio and $1.43 TTM EPS positioning it to outperform peers in a tightening market.

Copper Sector Rally as FCX Outpaces Peers
FCX’s 2.5% gain dwarfs Southern Copper (SCCO)’s 0.83% rise, underscoring its cost leadership and production scale. While SCCO’s $148.41 price reflects similar copper exposure, FCX’s $74.7B market cap and $2.11B levered free cash flow (TTM) provide greater margin resilience amid volatile pricing. The disparity highlights FCX’s strategic advantage in high-margin US operations and its ability to leverage copper’s energy transition demand, particularly in AI-driven infrastructure and EV manufacturing.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Copper’s Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $41.10 (well below current price)
• RSI: 88.62 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 2.04 (bullish divergence from signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 51.00 (upper band), 45.48 (middle), 39.97 (lower)
FCX’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $52.29 (52-week high) and support at $45.48 (20-day MA). The stock’s 1.48 beta and 31.09 P/E ratio indicate strong alignment with copper’s structural demand, though overbought RSI (88.62) signals potential near-term consolidation. Two options stand out for aggressive positioning:

• FCX20260102C52
- Type: Call
- Strike: $52.00
- Expiry: 2026-01-02
- IV: 27.76% (moderate)
- LVR: 49.57% (high leverage)
- Delta: 0.525 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1158 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1587 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 262,046 (liquid)
This call option offers optimal leverage for a 5% upside scenario (target $54.50), with a projected payoff of $2.50 per contract. The high gamma and moderate delta make it ideal for capturing sharp moves in a volatile copper-linked market.

• FCX20260102C53
- Type: Call
- Strike: $53.00
- Expiry: 2026-01-02
- IV: 29.15% (moderate)
- LVR: 77.69% (extreme leverage)
- Delta: 0.377 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0963 (moderate time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1442 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 145,821 (liquid)
This contract provides explosive potential for a 10% upside (target $57.10), with a projected $4.10 payoff. The 77.69% leverage ratio amplifies returns if FCX breaks above $52.29 resistance, though its lower delta requires a sharper price move to offset theta decay.

Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20260102C52 into a bounce above $52.29, while those with higher risk tolerance could target FCX20260102C53 for a breakout above $53.00.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a 2% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.24%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.49%, and the 30-Day win rate is 54.08%, indicating that the stock tends to perform well in the short term following the intraday surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.86% over 35 days, suggesting that while the returns may not be consistently high, there is a good chance of capturing positive gains in the immediate aftermath of the intraday surge.

Copper’s Structural Deficit Positions FCX for 2026 Volatility
FCX’s 2.5% intraday surge reflects its strategic positioning in a copper market on the brink of a 600,000-ton deficit by 2026. With mine outages, zero treatment charges, and AI-driven demand creating a perfect storm, the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest continued volatility. Investors should monitor the $52.29 52-week high as a critical breakout level, with Southern Copper (SCCO)’s 0.83% gain highlighting FCX’s superior margin resilience. For those seeking directional exposure, the FCX20260102C52 call offers a balanced risk-reward profile, while the FCX20260102C53 call targets explosive upside in a breakout scenario. Watch for $52.29 breakdown or regulatory reaction.