Freeport-McMoran sube 2.74% mientras que el cobre alcanza su máximo en 52 semanas. ¿Qué hace que suba?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) surges 2.74% to $52.03, hitting its 52-week high of $52.29
• Copper prices soar to $12,000 per ton, driving investor optimism
• Turnover jumps to 8.4M shares, signaling heightened market activity

Freeport-McMoRan’s stock is trading at its highest level in over a year, fueled by a sharp rise in copper prices and renewed demand for industrial metals. The rally reflects broader market confidence in the energy transition and electrification trends, with FCX’s production scale and cost efficiency amplifying its appeal. As the stock tests critical technical levels, traders are weighing short-term momentum against long-term structural demand.

Copper Price Surge Drives FCX Rally
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.74% intraday gain is directly tied to copper prices hitting $12,000 per ton, a level not seen in over a year. The surge in copper, a critical input for renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicles, has reignited investor enthusiasm for FCX’s production capabilities. Despite operational challenges like the Grasberg mine shutdown, the company’s cost discipline and exposure to secular demand growth have positioned it to capitalize on the price rebound. Analysts note that FCX’s ability to capture favorable pricing—$4.54 per pound in Q2 2025—further underpins its outperformance.

Copper Sector Rally Gains Momentum as FCX Outperforms Peer SCCO
The broader copper sector is rallying on record prices, but Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.74% gain outpaces Southern Copper (SCCO), the sector leader, which rose 0.83%. FCX’s stronger performance reflects its dominant market share, cost leadership, and alignment with long-term demand trends. While SCCO’s production scale is formidable, FCX’s strategic investments in leaching technologies and operational efficiency have created a widening margin advantage, making it a preferred play in a tightening supply environment.

Options Playbook: Aggressive Calls on FCX’s Breakout Momentum
• 200-day average: 41.10 (well below current price)
• RSI: 88.62 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 2.04 (bullish divergence from signal line)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at upper band (51.00), suggesting overextension

FCX’s technicals indicate a short-term overbought condition, but the stock remains in a long-term bullish trend. Key levels to watch include the 52-week high at $52.29 and the 200-day moving average at $41.10. With copper prices surging and the stock trading near its upper Bollinger Band, aggressive bulls may consider leveraged call options to capitalize on continued momentum.

Top Options Picks:
• FCX20260102C52
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $52.00
- Expiration: 2026-01-02
- IV: 27.81% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 49.57% (high)
- Delta: 0.52 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1158 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.1584 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: 262,046 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $52.03 → $54.63 → max(0, 54.63 - 52.00) = $2.63/share
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this call ideal for a sharp move above $52.00, with liquidity ensuring easy entry/exit.

• FCX20260102C53
- Type: Call
- Strike Price: $53.00
- Expiration: 2026-01-02
- IV: 29.18% (moderate)
- Leverage Ratio: 77.69% (very high)
- Delta: 0.38 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.0963 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.1440 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 145,889 (liquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $52.03 → $54.63 → max(0, 54.63 - 53.00) = $1.63/share
- Why: Extreme leverage amplifies returns if FCX breaks above $53.00, though higher risk due to lower delta. Best for high-conviction bullish bets.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20260102C52 into a breakout above $52.00, while FCX20260102C53 offers explosive potential if the stock surges past $53.00.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a 3% intraday surge from 2022 to the present shows favorable results. The 3-day win rate is 54.69%, the 10-day win rate is 55.03%, and the 30-day win rate is 59.03%, indicating that the stock tends to perform well in the short term following the surge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 7.63%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that there is potential for significant gains if the surge occurs at the right time.

FCX’s Rally Hinges on Copper’s Momentum—Act Now Before Volatility Wanes
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.74% surge is a testament to copper’s role in the energy transition, but the stock’s overbought RSI and tight Bollinger Band position suggest caution. While the rally is justified by fundamentals, traders should monitor the 52-week high at $52.29 and the 200-day moving average for directional clues. With SCCO lagging at +0.83%, FCX’s outperformance underscores its strategic edge. For those seeking leverage, the FCX20260102C52 call offers a high-gamma, high-leverage play on a potential breakout. Watch for a sustained close above $52.29 to confirm the trend’s continuation.