Freeport-McMoRan sube 2,24% al tiempo que el cobre se reactiva y hay turbulencias legales ¿Qué hace que el movimiento se produzca?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $47.49, up 2.24% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $49.12.
• Copper prices hit record highs on Fed rate cuts and supply fears, with LME copper at $11,765/ton.
• A class-action lawsuit alleges safety failures at FCX’s Indonesian mine, sparking regulatory and reputational risks.
• The stock’s 9.1% monthly gain outpaces the S&P 500’s 1.8% and the mining sector’s 6.4% rally.
Freeport-McMoRan’s sharp intraday rebound aligns with a broader copper sector surge driven by macroeconomic optimism and supply-side pressures. However, legal challenges and earnings estimate revisions cast a shadow over its near-term trajectory. Traders are weighing the stock’s technical strength against fundamental headwinds.

Copper’s Record Highs and Earnings Revisions Drive FCX’s Rally
Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.24% intraday gain is directly tied to the record-breaking rally in copper prices, which surged 2.1% to $11,800.50/ton on the London Metal Exchange. The Fed’s rate cut and upgraded U.S. growth forecast have bolstered demand for industrial metals, while mine disruptions and U.S. tariff fears amplify supply concerns. Meanwhile, FCX’s earnings estimates for the current fiscal year remain flat at $1.48, but next-year projections of $1.89 (+27.4 YoY) hint at potential upside. However, the Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) rating underscores skepticism about near-term momentum, as recent earnings revisions have trended downward for both current and next fiscal years.

Copper Sector Soars as Southern Copper (SCCO) Gains 0.99%
The copper sector is in a bull phase, with Southern Copper (SCCO) rising 0.99% and the broader industry up 6.4% month-to-date. Freeport-McMoRan’s 2.24% intraday gain outpaces SCCO’s move, reflecting its larger market cap and diversified operations. However, SCCO’s recent production approvals in Peru and Argentina position it as a key competitor. The sector’s strength is underpinned by AI-driven data center demand and U.S. fiscal stimulus, but FCX’s legal liabilities and earnings uncertainty create a nuanced outlook.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on FCX’s Volatility and Sector Momentum
• Technical Indicators: RSI at 77.54 (overbought), MACD 1.22 (bullish), 200D MA at $40.65 (below current price).
• Key Levels: Support at $39.74–$39.90 (30D), resistance at $41.07–$41.43 (200D).
• Options Focus: Two contracts stand out for their liquidity and leverage potential:
- FCX20251219C47: Call option with strike $47, IV 34.52%, leverage ratio 34.04%, delta 0.615, theta -0.141, gamma 0.148, turnover 349,631. This contract offers moderate delta exposure and high gamma sensitivity, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target price $49.86). Payoff: $2.86/share.
- FCX20251219C47.5: Call option with strike $47.5, IV 33.10%, leverage ratio 44.12%, delta 0.539, theta -0.131, gamma 0.160, turnover 7,542. Stronger leverage and gamma make it a high-reward play if FCX breaks above $47.77. Payoff: $2.36/share.
Aggressive bulls should target FCX20251219C47.5 into a break above $47.77, while conservative traders may use FCX20251219C47 for a safer, high-gamma position. Both contracts benefit from the sector’s macro-driven momentum.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a 2% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-day, 10-day, and 30-day win rates are above 50%, the maximum return during the backtest period is only 1.62%, which suggests that the stock's performance after the surge was relatively modest.

FCX’s Rally Faces Legal and Earnings Hurdles—Act Now on Sector Strength
Freeport-McMoRan’s intraday surge is a product of copper’s record highs and sector optimism, but its Zacks Rank 3 rating and ongoing legal liabilities suggest caution. The stock’s 2.24% move aligns with the copper sector’s 6.4% monthly gain, led by Southern Copper’s 0.99% rise. Traders should monitor the $47.77 intraday high as a critical resistance level and watch for a breakdown below $46.43 to trigger short-term corrections. For those bullish on the sector, FCX20251219C47.5 offers a high-leverage play, but legal risks and earnings revisions could cap upside. Act now on sector strength, but hedge against regulatory and earnings headwinds.