Freeport-McMoRan cae un 2.68% debido a los problemas legales y a la volatilidad del precio del cobre… ¿Qué será lo siguiente?

Summary
• FCX tumbles to $54.015, down 2.68% from $55.50 close
• Legal suits over Grasberg mine safety allegations spark investor panic
• Copper prices surge to $5.72/lb amid AI-driven demand and U.S. tariff fears
Freeport-McMoRan’s stock faces a perfect storm of legal uncertainty and volatile copper markets. With the stock trading at its intraday low of $53.36 and a 30-day price target raised to $68 by JPMorgan, the path forward hinges on resolving safety allegations and navigating a tightening global copper supply.

Legal Overhang and Safety Scrutiny Trigger FCX Sell-Off
The sharp decline in FCX stems from ongoing securities fraud lawsuits alleging the company concealed safety failures at its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia. Multiple law firms have filed class-action suits, accusing Freeport of misleading investors about risks to workers and regulatory exposure. These allegations, combined with a 35% sequential drop in Q4 copper sales volumes due to the mine’s temporary shutdown, have triggered a flight to safety. Meanwhile, copper prices, though down 1.67% to $5.72/lb, remain elevated on AI infrastructure demand and U.S. tariff speculation, creating a tug-of-war between long-term bullish fundamentals and near-term legal headwinds.

Copper Sector Volatility Intensifies as BHP Trails FCX’s Slide
The broader copper sector is under pressure as BHP Group (BHP) also declines 1.88%, reflecting shared risks from regulatory scrutiny and supply constraints. While Freeport’s 30% outperformance over the past three months has faded, the sector remains buoyed by AI-driven demand projections. Copper prices are expected to rise 33.81% year-to-date, with AI infrastructure alone set to boost demand by 50% by 2040. However, Freeport’s legal liabilities and production disruptions at Grasberg create a steeper near-term hurdle compared to peers like Southern Copper (SCCO), which has gained 19.3% over the same period.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on FCX’s Volatility with Strategic Puts
• RSI: 78.92 (overbought correction in progress)
• MACD: 2.83 (bullish momentum waning)
• Bollinger Bands: 53.36–56.51 (price near lower band)
• 200D MA: 41.82 (long-term support intact)
Freeport-McMoRan’s technicals suggest a short-term bearish bias amid legal uncertainty, with key support at $44.08 (lower Bollinger) and resistance at $56.51 (upper Bollinger). The RSI overbought reading and MACD divergence signal potential for a pullback. For options traders, the most compelling plays are puts with high leverage and liquidity:

Top Pick 1: FCX20260116P50 (Put)
• Strike: $50 | Expiration: 2026-01-16 | IV: 46.83% | Leverage: 217.08% | Delta: -0.1227 | Theta: -0.0211 | Gamma: 0.0509 | Turnover: 15,363
• IV: High volatility implies strong price swings | Leverage: Amplifies downside gains | Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price moves | Theta: Decent time decay | Gamma: High sensitivity to price acceleration
• This put offers 217x leverage on a 5% downside scenario (targeting $51.31), with high liquidity and gamma to capitalize on rapid declines. Ideal for aggressive short-term bearish bets.

Top Pick 2: FCX20260116P52 (Put)
• Strike: $52 | Expiration: 2026-01-16 | IV: 49.75% | Leverage: 72.36% | Delta: -0.2756 | Theta: -0.0241 | Gamma: 0.0788 | Turnover: 5,758
• IV: Elevated volatility | Leverage: Strong downside amplification | Delta: Higher sensitivity to price drops | Theta: Moderate time decay | Gamma: High responsiveness to price acceleration
• This put provides 72x leverage on a 5% downside (targeting $51.31), with robust gamma to benefit from sharp declines. Turnover of 5,758 ensures liquidity for entry/exit.

Action Insight: Aggressive bears should prioritize FCX20260116P50 for maximum leverage, while FCX20260116P52 offers a balanced risk-reward profile. Both contracts align with the stock’s technical breakdown and legal overhang.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-term gains. The 3-day win rate is 52.99%, the 10-day win rate is 51.59%, and the 30-day win rate is 52.99%, indicating that the stock tends to recover positively in the immediate aftermath of such events. The maximum return during the backtest period was 3.81%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that while the stock may experience some volatility, it has the potential for reasonable gains in the following days.

FCX at Crossroads: Legal Risks vs. Copper’s Golden Future – Immediate Steps for Traders
Freeport-McMoRan’s near-term trajectory hinges on resolving its legal liabilities and stabilizing production at Grasberg. While copper’s structural demand from AI and EVs remains intact, the stock’s 22.4% upside potential (per JPMorgan) is clouded by regulatory risks. Traders should monitor the $44.08 support level and BHP’s performance (-1.88%) as sector barometers. For now, strategic puts like FCX20260116P50 offer a high-leverage play on the legal-driven selloff. Act Now: Short FCX with puts if $50 breaks, or pivot to longs if copper prices rebound above $6/lb and legal risks abate.