Freeport-McMoRan cae un 3.46%, en medio de una turbulencia generalizada en el sector: ¿Qué está causando esta caída?

Summary
• Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) trades at $54.205, down 3.46% intraday as of 14:58 ET on 2026-01-07.
• Sector leader BHP Group (BHP) declines 2.18%, signaling broader mining sector fragility.
• Options chain shows extreme implied volatility (315% for 42-strike call), with 45-strike call (FCX20260116C45) seeing $84,626 turnover.
• FCX’s 52-week high of $57.12 now feels distant as the stock trades near its intraday low of $54.10. The selloff coincides with a surge in copper deficit warnings and legal headwinds for peers, raising questions about the sustainability of recent gains in the metals and mining sector.

Copper Shortage Fears and Legal Headwinds Trigger Sector-Wide Selloff
The sharp decline in Freeport-McMoRan’s stock is driven by a confluence of sector-specific pressures. Recent BloombergNEF analysis highlighted a structural copper deficit emerging in 2026, with demand surging from green energy and AI infrastructure outpacing supply. This has rattled investor sentiment across the metals and mining sector. Compounding the issue, BHP’s $253 million UK legal costs demand and Anglo American’s restructuring challenges underscore the sector’s vulnerability to regulatory and operational risks. Freeport-McMoRan, as a major copper producer, faces dual pressures: near-term supply constraints and long-term capital allocation uncertainties, particularly as peers grapple with geopolitical and legal hurdles.

Mining Sector Under Fire: FCX Underperforms BHP Amid Copper Deficit Fears
While BHP Group (BHP) fell 2.18% intraday, Freeport-McMoRan’s 3.46% drop highlights its heightened sensitivity to copper-specific dynamics. Unlike BHP’s diversified portfolio, FCX’s exposure to copper—its primary commodity—leaves it more vulnerable to near-term supply-demand imbalances. The sector’s broader struggles are evident in Anglo American’s stalled coal and nickel exits and Barrick’s Mali mine reclamation efforts. However, FCX’s underperformance suggests investors are pricing in a sharper near-term correction in copper prices, given its lack of hedging against structural deficits and geopolitical risks.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility Amid Sector Turbulence
• Technical Indicators:
- RSI: 82.86 (overbought, suggesting potential reversal)
- MACD: 2.73 (bullish), Signal Line: 2.39 (divergence warning)
- Bollinger Bands: Price near lower band ($43.63), indicating oversold territory
- 200-day MA: $41.75 (far below current price, long-term bullish)
• Trading Setup: FCX is testing key support levels near $43.63 (lower Bollinger Band) and $41.03 (200D MA). A break below $54.10 intraday low could trigger a retest of 52-week lows. Short-term traders should monitor the 50-strike put (FCX20260116P50) for volatility spikes, while bulls may target a rebound above $55.38 intraday high to re-enter long positions.
• Top Options:
- FCX20260116C45 (Call):
• Strike: $45, Expiry: 2026-01-16, IV: 229.33%, Delta: 0.7537, Theta: -0.3977, Gamma: 0.01528, Turnover: $84,626
• High leverage (5.76%) and moderate delta suggest strong directional bias. IV at 229% reflects extreme volatility, ideal for short-term plays.
• Payoff: 5% downside to $51.495 → max loss of $3.505 (strike - price).
- FCX20260116C48 (Call):
• Strike: $48, Expiry: 2026-01-16, IV: 143.65%, Delta: 0.7391, Theta: -0.2986, Gamma: 0.02515, Turnover: $10,249
• High gamma (0.025) and moderate IV (143%) offer sensitivity to price swings. Turnover of $10,249 ensures liquidity.
• Payoff: 5% downside to $51.495 → max loss of $6.505 (strike - price).
• Action: Aggressive bulls may consider FCX20260116C45 into a bounce above $55.38. Cautious traders should watch the 50-strike put (FCX20260116P50) for volatility spikes if the selloff persists.

Backtest Freeport-McMoRan Stock Performance
The backtest of FCX's performance after a -3% intraday plunge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 3-day win rate is 50.54%, indicating a slight majority of days with a positive return, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 48.39% and 50.27%, respectively. This suggests that although FCX tends to recover somewhat quickly from the intraday plunge, longer-term performance is more volatile.

Sector-Wide Weakness Looms: FCX Traders Must Navigate Copper’s Structural Deficit
Freeport-McMoRan’s selloff reflects broader sector fragility as copper deficits and legal risks dominate headlines. While technicals suggest a potential rebound near $55.38, the 52-week low of $27.66 remains a critical psychological barrier. Investors should monitor BHP’s -2.18% decline as a sector barometer. For FCX, the 45-strike call (FCX20260116C45) offers high leverage but carries significant downside risk. A break below $54.10 intraday low could accelerate the move toward $43.63 Bollinger Band support. Action: Short-term traders should prioritize volatility-based options (e.g., 50-strike put) while long-term bulls may wait for a confirmed rebound above $55.38 before re-entering.