Freeport-McMoRan's Copper Sales Fall Sparks Mixed Analyst Reactions, Long-Term Upside Remains In Play

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) reported fourth-quarter FY24 results, with copper sales totaling 1.0 billion pounds, slightly above estimates but down year-over-year. The mixed analyst reactions to the results reflect the company's long-term growth prospects in the copper market, as analysts weigh near-term challenges against future growth potential.



Freeport-McMoRan's copper sales declined year-over-year due to lower ore grades and the timing of shipments at PT-FI. The company expects 4.0 billion pounds of copper sales in 2025, slightly lower than 2024. Despite the near-term challenges, Freeport-McMoRan's long-term growth trajectory remains intact, supported by its expansion projects and the growing demand for copper.



Analysts' reactions to Freeport-McMoRan's results were mixed, with some raising price targets and maintaining positive outlooks, while others adopted a more cautious stance. Raymond James raised its price target to $57 from $55, maintaining an Outperform rating, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term growth prospects. RBC Capital Markets maintained a Sector Perform rating but raised its price target to $58, indicating a positive outlook for the company's long-term growth potential.



On the other hand, Scotiabank BNS maintained a Sector Perform rating but reduced its 12-month price target from $52 to $52, reflecting a more cautious near-term outlook. RBC Capital Markets highlighted some near-term risks, such as the Indonesian smelter fire and potential concentrate export permit extension, which could delay production ramp-up and impact near-term results.



Freeport-McMoRan's long-term growth prospects in the copper market remain strong, driven by the growing demand for copper, expansion projects, and the company's strong financial position. Despite near-term challenges, the company's long-term growth trajectory is supported by its vast copper reserves, expansion projects, and the growing demand for copper driven by electrification and other megatrends.

In conclusion, Freeport-McMoRan's expected sales volumes for 2025 show a slight decrease in copper sales compared to 2024, while gold sales remain relatively stable. The company's long-term growth trajectory for copper sales is supported by its expansion projects, which could lead to increased production in the coming years. However, the company's focus on copper and gold may result in decreased molybdenum sales. The mixed analyst reactions to Freeport-McMoRan's fourth-quarter FY24 results reflect the company's long-term growth prospects in the copper market, as analysts weigh near-term challenges against future growth potential.