Freedom Holding Plunges 5.57% Intraday—Is Institutional Selling the Hidden Catalyst?

Summary
• Freedom Holding Corp. (NASDAQ:FRHC) has fallen 5.57% to $166.99, its lowest since March 2023.
• Institutional investors including Arizona State Retirement System and D. E. Shaw & Co. reduced stakes in Q1 and Q4 2025.
• The stock’s 52-week high of $185 is now 6.3% above current price.
• With a 0.84% turnover rate and a 52-week low of $75.11, FRHC’s volatility raises questions about its near-term trajectory.

Institutional Redemptions Trigger Sharp Selloff
Freedom Holding’s intraday plunge stems from a coordinated institutional sell-off revealed in recent SEC filings. Arizona State Retirement System reduced its position by 1.8% in Q1 2025, while D. E. Shaw & Co. cut its stake by 1,127.2% in Q4 2024. These moves, combined with JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s 286% reduction, signal a strategic rebalancing among major investors. The cumulative effect—$10.5 million in Q4 redemptions and $686,000 in Q1—has amplified short-term liquidity pressure. This institutional exodus, coupled with a 2.36 earnings loss per share in Q2 2025, has created a self-reinforcing bearish spiral.

Brokerage Sector Under Pressure as Schwab Slides 0.84%
The Investment Banking and Brokerage sector is broadly underperforming, with sector leader The Charles Schwab (SCHW) down 0.836% intraday. While Schwab’s decline reflects broader market weakness, FRHC’s 5.57% drop is more pronounced, highlighting its vulnerability to concentrated institutional selling. Schwab’s recent earnings resilience (Q1 2025 revenue up 4.2% YoY) contrasts with Freedom’s Q2 earnings loss, suggesting FRHC’s selloff has idiosyncratic drivers beyond macroeconomic factors.

Options and ETF Plays for a Volatile Recovery Scenario
• 52W High: $185 (7.3% above current price)
• 200-day MA: $144.11 (23.2% below current price)
• RSI: 77.63 (overbought territory)
• MACD: 5.41 (bullish divergence from signal line 1.07)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at $174.42 (10.5% above current price), Middle at $150.04
• Key support/resistance: 30D $152.08–$152.89, 200D $125.89–$127.62

FRHC’s technicals suggest a potential rebound from oversold levels, with the 5.41 MACD line indicating short-term momentum. The 77.63 RSI reading, though overbought, often precedes corrective moves in volatile stocks. Traders should monitor the $165.13 intraday low as a critical support level.

• FRHC20250815P165
- Put Option, Strike: $165, Expiry: 2025-08-15
- IV: 64.96% (high volatility)
- Leverage Ratio: 16.71% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.4303 (sensitive to price swings)
- Theta: -0.0797 (accelerated time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0138 (high sensitivity to price movement)
- Turnover: 1,000 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% downside (target $158.64): $6.36 per contract
- This put option offers asymmetric upside in a bearish scenario, with high gamma ensuring rapid premium expansion if FRHC breaks below $165.

• FRHC20250919C165
- Call Option, Strike: $165, Expiry: 2025-09-19
- IV: 49.85% (reasonable)
- Leverage Ratio: 11.14% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.5785 (balanced sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.1697 (substantial time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0116 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 3,000 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% downside (target $158.64): $0 (out-of-the-money)
- While the 5% downside scenario nullifies this call’s payoff, its high liquidity and moderate leverage make it a viable long-biased play if FRHC stabilizes above $165. Aggressive bulls may consider this into a bounce above the 200-day MA.

Hook: If $165 breaks, FRHC20250815P165 offers short-side potential. Aggressive bulls may consider FRHC20250919C165 into a rebound above $170.

Backtest Freedom Holding Stock Performance
The performance of FRHC after an intraday plunge of -6% was generally positive, with higher win rates and returns over various time frames. The 3-Day win rate was 54.89%, the 10-Day win rate was 59.18%, and the 30-Day win rate was 63.98%. The average returns over these periods were 0.62% over 3 days, 1.98% over 10 days, and 5.46% over 30 days. The maximum return during the backtest was 10.77%, which occurred on day 59, indicating that FRHC tended to recover and even exceed its pre-plunge levels in the medium to long term.

Act Fast: Position for a Rebound or Capitalize on the Selloff
Freedom Holding’s 5.57% intraday drop has created a high-conviction trading opportunity. The stock’s technicals—oversold RSI, divergent MACD, and proximity to key support levels—suggest a potential reversal. However, institutional selling pressure remains a wild card. Traders should prioritize the FRHC20250815P165 put for bearish exposure and monitor Schwab’s performance as a sector benchmark. With Schwab down 0.836% and FRHC trading 6.3% below its 52-week high, the next 48 hours will test whether this selloff is a buying opportunity or a deeper correction. Watch for a $165 breakdown or a rebound above $170 to dictate next steps.