Franco-Nevada Rises 3% As Technicals Signal Bullish Continuation

Franco-nevada (FNV) gained 3.00% to close at $160.57 in the latest session, extending a two-day advance totaling 4.00%. This rebound off mid-July lows warrants a multidimensional technical assessment.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal constructive price action. The July 22nd session formed a robust bullish candle closing near its high ($160.57), decisively penetrating the $158 resistance zone established by the July 7th high. This follows a hammer-like pattern on July 18th (low: $154.11, close: $154.40), signaling potential exhaustion of the preceding downtrend. Key resistance now resides at the July 7th swing high ($166.58), while support consolidates at $155.50–$156.00, reinforced by the July 17th–18th troughs.
Moving Average Theory
The price maintains a bullish posture relative to major moving averages, trading above the 50-day ($157.20 estimated), 100-day ($154.80 estimated), and 200-day ($145.00 estimated) averages. The alignment of all three trending upward confirms a long-term bullish bias. Notably, the 50-day MA recently provided support during the July pullback, while the 200-day MA has contained pullbacks since April 2025. This structure suggests the primary uptrend remains intact.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows embryonic bullish momentum as the MACD line (12/26-day EMA differential) converges toward a potential bullish crossover above its signal line. KDJ oscillators (%K: 65, %D: 50 estimated) recently emerged from oversold territory (sub-30) after July 18th’s trough. The subsequent bullish crossover aligns with price recovery, though neither indicator yet flags overbought conditions. Confluence exists in the synchronization of improving momentum signals with the price rebound.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction is evident with the bands narrowing through mid-July, reflecting diminished price swings. The July 22nd close near the upper band ($161.20 estimated) signals renewed bullish momentum. While not yet exceeding the +2σ threshold, this breakout from the consolidation range suggests potential band expansion and continuation upside. The lower band ($152.50) provided reliable support during the recent retracement phase.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume dynamics validate the recovery, with July 22nd’s 773k shares traded exceeding the 10-day average and accompanying a 3% advance. This follows the capitulation-like volume spike on July 8th (1.03M shares) during the sharp decline to $158.03, which may have exhausted selling pressure. Sustained volume expansion on this rebound increases confidence in its sustainability, contrasting with the diminishing volume during the preceding consolidation.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (41 calculated) remains neutral, recovering from oversold conditions (<30) observed around July 18th but not yet approaching overbought territory (>70). This positioning implies room for additional upside before caution is warranted. A moderate bullish divergence materialized as prices established higher lows while RSI bottomed in mid-July, though its predictive reliability requires confirmation through continued price follow-through.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the June 5th high ($179.99) and July 17th low ($152.89), the 23.6% retracement ($159.29) was breached decisively on July 22nd. This level now becomes initial support. The 38.2% retracement ($163.24) aligns with the July 7th swing high ($166.58), creating a significant resistance confluence zone. A sustained break above $163.24 may open the path toward the 50% level ($166.44), while failure to hold $159.29 could signal vulnerability.
Concluding Assessment
Technical confluence is evident in the bullish volume confirmation, moving average support, and momentum oscillators aligning with the price breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The absence of material divergences and RSI’s neutral positioning further support continuation potential. Immediate hurdles exist at $163.24 (Fibonacci 38.2% + July swing high), but a sustained break above this resistance may propel Franco-nevada toward the $166–$170 zone in the medium term. A close below $156.00 would invalidate this constructive setup.