FORMUSDC Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Drop Followed by Stabilization

• FORMUSDC opened at $2.6323 and dropped to a low of $2.4013 before bouncing back toward $2.643.
• Strong bearish momentum emerged in the early hours with a massive price drop and high turnover.
• Volatility expanded dramatically in the first 6–8 hours, followed by a contraction.
• Volume surged during the downward move, but diverged from price during the subsequent rebound.
• Key support and resistance levels emerged at $2.55, $2.65, and $2.68.

Overview and Price Action

FORMUSDC opened at $2.6323 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-13 and experienced a sharp decline, reaching a 24-hour low of $2.4013 during the early morning hours. The pair closed the 24-hour period at $2.6516 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14. Total volume amounted to 248,046.0 units, with total notional turnover reaching $621,410.50, based on the provided OHLCV data. The price action displayed a large bearish engulfing pattern followed by a possible bullish reversal.

Structure & Formations

A notable bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:30–02:45 ET with the price dropping from $2.643 to $2.5776, followed by a deep correction to $2.4268. At $2.5426 and $2.4268, the price found strong support levels. A potential bullish reversal occurred at $2.5426 and $2.6516, with a key support cluster at $2.55 and $2.50. A resistance level is forming at $2.65, as the price has bounced off it several times during the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs were in a steep downward slope for most of the session, indicating bearish momentum until a reversal began forming in the early morning. The daily chart showed the 50-period and 200-period SMAs still in a bearish alignment, with price below both. A cross above the 50-period SMA in the next 24 hours would be a positive sign for a short-term reversal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the final hours of the session, with a histogram showing a gradual expansion, indicating increasing bullish momentum. RSI, which dropped into oversold territory near 25, has since risen above 45, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, RSI remains below overbought levels (70), so there is still room for upward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was extremely high during the initial price drop, with price moving outside the upper and lower bands multiple times. Following the consolidation phase, volatility has contracted, and price is now trading near the upper band, indicating a potential breakout attempt. If the price closes above the upper band, it may trigger a short-term bullish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the early morning hours, particularly between 02:30 and 04:00 ET, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, the volume during the subsequent rebound was significantly lower, indicating a potential divergence between volume and price. This divergence may suggest a weak recovery or a possible reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key swing low at $2.4013 and swing high at $2.6842 show that the current price is approaching the 61.8% level ($2.57). A break above $2.65 could target the 78.6% level at $2.67. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level is near $2.62, and the 78.6% level is around $2.66, both of which will be key for trend confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent structure and indicators, a potential backtest strategy could focus on detecting breakouts from key Fibonacci levels ($2.57–$2.65) with confirmation from the MACD and RSI. A long entry could be triggered on a close above the 61.8% level ($2.57), with a stop just below the previous swing low. A short entry could be activated on a close below $2.4013, with a stop above the 61.8% level. This strategy would align with a volatility breakout approach, focusing on key levels and confirmation through momentum indicators.