FORMUSDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Volatility and Key Support Levels

• Price declined from $2.01 to ~$1.97 amid bearish momentum and high volatility.
• Key support tested around $1.97 and resistance at $2.01–$2.03 levels.
• Volume spiked near 20K, but price failed to confirm bullish breakout.
• RSI and MACD signaled overbought/oversold rotations, hinting at exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly, reflecting high 24-hour uncertainty.

24-Hour Price Summary

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-17, Four/USDC (FORMUSDC) opened at $1.9897, reached a high of $2.03, a low of $1.966, and closed at $1.9721. Total volume across the 24-hour window was 83,416.9, and notional turnover amounted to $163,071.33 (calculated using mid-price estimates). The market displayed a volatile bearish bias after an initial test of key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

A sharp correction from the 2.03 high to the 1.966 low revealed strong bearish control. Key support levels appear to be forming near $1.97, while resistance remains critical at $2.01–$2.03. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 20:15–20:30 ET window and was followed by a doji at the 03:00 ET time slot, signaling indecision and potential exhaustion in the bullish trend.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart showed the price closing below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating bearish bias. The daily timeframe remains mixed, with the 50/100/200 SMA showing a potential convergence at $1.98–$1.99. Momentum, as captured by MACD, turned bearish after a brief bullish spike at $2.00. RSI fluctuated between overbought (>65) and oversold (<30) conditions, suggesting high volatility and potential reversals.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

The Bollinger Bands expanded significantly, reaching a width of over 0.04 at the peak of the session, confirming the volatile nature of the 24-hour period. Price spent much of the session near the lower band after the 20:00 ET drop to 1.966, suggesting increased bearish pressure. A potential rebound back toward the middle band could indicate a short-term stabilization phase.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked at $20K during the 03:00–04:00 ET timeframe when the price fell from 2.01 to 1.97. However, this was not followed by a sustained rally, indicating a potential volume-price divergence. Notional turnover also showed a peak at the same time, but the price failed to confirm bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2.01 high to the 1.966 low include $1.995 (38.2%), $1.983 (50%), and $1.970 (61.8%). The price has spent significant time near the 61.8% level, suggesting that $1.97 is a critical support zone. A break below this level could extend the bearish trend toward $1.955–$1.950.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a break below the 1.970 Fibonacci level with a stop loss above the 20SMA or at the 1.983 (50%) level. A target could be placed at $1.950, based on the 61.8% extension. A long setup may be considered on a rebound above 1.995, targeting $2.01–$2.03 resistance. This strategy would require tight risk management and confirmation via RSI divergence and MACD crossover for improved signal reliability.