FOLD sube un 30% en una adquisición de $4.8B: el movimiento explosivo de una bioingeniería de una enfermedad rara

Summary
• BioMarin's $14.50/share all-cash bid for Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) triggers 30.4% intraday surge
• Stock trades at $14.20, 33% above prior close, with $14.36 52-week high hit
• $4.8B deal adds Galafold and Pombiliti+Opfolda to BioMarin's rare disease portfolio
• Turnover surges to 162.8M shares, 53.9% of float, as market digests strategic acquisition

Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) has erupted 30.4% in a single trading session, fueled by BioMarin's $4.8 billion all-cash acquisition offer. The stock's meteoric rise to $14.20—just $0.30 below the takeover price—reflects investor confidence in the deal's accretive potential. With 162.8 million shares traded, the biotech's rare disease assets now command premium valuations as the market weighs BioMarin's strategic expansion into Fabry and Pompe disease markets.

BioMarin's $4.8B Bid Ignites FOLD's Record Surge
The 30.4% intraday rally in Amicus Therapeutics (FOLD) stems directly from BioMarin's $14.50/share all-cash acquisition offer, representing a 33% premium to FOLD's previous close. This $4.8 billion deal accelerates BioMarin's rare disease expansion by acquiring Galafold (Fabry disease) and Pombiliti+Opfolda (Pompe disease), two high-growth therapies generating $599 million in trailing revenue. The transaction's 58% premium to FOLD's 60-day VWAP and BioMarin's commitment to deleveraging to <2.5x gross leverage within two years have created a compelling value proposition. With the deal expected to close Q2 2026 and become accretive to non-GAAP EPS by 2027, investors are pricing in immediate revenue synergies and long-term margin expansion.

Pharma Sector Mixed as FOLD Outperforms
While FOLD's 30.4% surge dwarfs sector peers, the broader pharmaceutical sector shows mixed momentum. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), the sector's largest cap stock, declined 0.11% as investors digest its recent earnings report. This divergence highlights FOLD's unique catalyst—the transformative acquisition—versus JNJ's more mature business model. The sector's top news includes Pfizer's $2B GLP-1RA acquisition and Roche's lupus nephritis approval, but neither matches the capital-allocation impact of BioMarin's FOLD deal. FOLD's performance underscores the premium investors assign to rare disease assets with high-margin potential.

Options Playbook: Leveraging FOLD's Bullish Momentum
• 200-day MA: $7.64 (well below) | RSI: 75.8 (overbought) | MACD: 0.426 (bullish) | Kline pattern: Short/long-term bullish
• Bollinger Bands: $9.12–$11.03 (current price $14.20 above upper band)
• 30D Support: $9.85–$9.89 | 200D Resistance: $6.07–$6.18 (irrelevant at current levels)

FOLD's technicals scream continuation of the bullish trend, with RSI at overbought 75.8 and MACD above signal line. The stock's 53.9% turnover rate suggests strong order flow. Two options stand out for leveraged exposure:

• FOLD20260116C15 (Call, $15 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV: 16.89% (moderate)
- Leverage: 284.10%
- Delta: 0.1466 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.005564 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.3395 (high sensitivity to price moves)
- Turnover: $4,908
- Payoff at 5% upside ($14.91): $0.91/share
- Ideal for holding through January 2026 as leverage amplifies gains if BioMarin's $14.50 offer holds.

• FOLD20260220C14 (Call, $14 strike, Feb 20 2026):
- IV: 13.82% (reasonable)
- Leverage: 28.41%
- Delta: 0.6572 (high sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.008049 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.4470 (very high sensitivity)
- Turnover: $187,335
- Payoff at 5% upside ($14.91): $0.91/share
- Best for capitalizing on near-term volatility ahead of the Q2 2026 close, with high gamma ensuring price responsiveness.

Aggressive bulls should consider FOLD20260220C14 into a break above $14.36 52-week high. If BioMarin's $14.50 offer is upheld, these contracts could deliver 60–70% returns by Q1 2026.

Backtest Amicus Therapeutics Stock Performance
The backtest of FOLD's performance after a 30% intraday surge from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the 30-day win rate is high at 53.53%, the average return over that period is only 0.97%, with a maximum return of 2.22% on day 45. This suggests that while FOLD has a strong potential for short-term gains, the overall performance is modest and volatile.

FOLD's Takeover Premium: A Rare Disease Windfall
Amicus Therapeutics' 30.4% surge confirms the market's conviction in BioMarin's $14.50/share offer. With the stock trading just $0.30 below the takeover price and 53.9% of float exchanged, the acquisition's accretive potential is fully priced in. Technicals suggest continuation above $14.36 52-week high, with RSI overbought and MACD bullish. Investors should monitor BioMarin's Q2 2026 close and regulatory approvals. Meanwhile, Johnson & Johnson's -0.11% decline highlights FOLD's outperformance in the pharma sector. For those seeking leverage, the FOLD20260220C14 call option offers a high-gamma, high-leverage play on the deal's closure. Watch for $14.50 support or regulatory developments to confirm the 30%+ move's sustainability.