FLY aumenta en un 8.7% en medio de la tormenta legal: ¿Qué está impulsando este aumento?

Summary
• Firefly Aerospace (FLY) surges 8.73% to $28.76, hitting an intraday high of $29.01
• Class action lawsuits allege misleading statements on Alpha rocket program and growth potential
• Leveraged ETF FLYT jumps 15.83% as volatility spikes

Firefly Aerospace’s stock is trading at its highest level since mid-September 2025 amid a legal firestorm and surging volatility. The 8.73% intraday gain reflects a sharp divergence from its 52-week low of $16, driven by a wave of class action lawsuits and speculative trading. With the stock trading above its 30-day moving average of $21.30 and a dynamic PE of -11.73, investors are grappling with a mix of legal risk and technical momentum.

Legal Turmoil Sparks Volatility in FLY Shares
The surge in Firefly Aerospace’s stock is directly tied to the filing of multiple class action lawsuits by law firms including Schall Law Firm and Kuehn Law. These lawsuits allege that Firefly overstated the commercial viability of its Alpha rocket program and the demand for its Spacecraft Solutions business during its IPO period (August 7–September 29, 2025). The lawsuits claim these misrepresentations caused investors to suffer losses when the market corrected the perceived overvaluation. The legal uncertainty has paradoxically fueled short-term volatility, with traders betting on both sides of the equation as the stock tests key resistance levels.

Aerospace & Defense Sector Mixed as FLY Surges on Legal Drama
While Firefly Aerospace’s stock is surging, the broader Aerospace & Defense sector remains mixed. Boeing (BA), the sector’s largest constituent, is up 0.68% intraday, reflecting modest gains in defense contracts. However, peers like Intuitive Machines (LUNR) and Redwire (RDW) are trading flat to down, indicating that FLY’s movement is not sector-driven but rather a function of its unique legal and operational risks. The sector’s 30-day average of $21.30 contrasts sharply with FLY’s $28.76 level, underscoring the stock’s divergence.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on FLY’s Volatility
• MACD: 1.06 (above signal line 0.74), RSI: 62.75 (neutral), Bollinger Bands: 28.74 (upper), 22.98 (middle), 17.21 (lower)
• 30D MA: $21.30 (below current price), 100D MA: $29.99 (near current price)

Firefly Aerospace’s technicals suggest a short-term bullish trend, with the stock trading near its 100-day moving average and within the upper Bollinger Band. The RSI at 62.75 indicates no overbought conditions, while the MACD histogram of 0.31 suggests momentum is still building. The leveraged ETF Tradr 2X Long FLY Daily ETF (FLYT), up 15.83%, offers amplified exposure to FLY’s volatility but carries significant risk due to its 2X leverage.

Top Options Picks:
• FLY20260116C28: Call option with strike price $28, expiration 2026-01-16, IV 79.54%, leverage ratio 15.79%, delta 0.59, theta -0.136, gamma 0.103, turnover 2800. High leverage and moderate delta make this ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected price $30.19). Payoff: $2.19 per contract.
• FLY20260116C29: Call option with strike price $29, expiration 2026-01-16, IV 121.69%, leverage ratio 13.48%, delta 0.51, theta -0.167, gamma 0.069, turnover 13538. High liquidity and IV suggest strong short-term demand. Payoff under 5% upside: $1.19 per contract.

Aggressive bulls should consider FLY20260116C28 into a breakout above $29.00, while FLY20260116C29 offers a safer, higher-liquidity play. Watch for a breakdown below $25.30 (intraday low) to trigger short-side momentum.

Backtest Firefly Aerospace Stock Performance
The backtest of FLY's performance following a 9% intraday increase from 2022 to the present reveals a significant underperformance. The strategy yielded a return of -49.32%, lagging the benchmark by 92.29%. With a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of -0.69, the strategy demonstrated a high level of risk and substantial volatility, highlighting the challenges of such a volatile approach.

FLY’s Legal Drama and Technicals: What to Do Now
Firefly Aerospace’s 8.73% surge is a high-risk, high-reward trade driven by legal uncertainty and technical momentum. While the stock’s short-term bullish trend is intact, the lawsuits could lead to regulatory scrutiny or a sharp reversal if the market re-evaluates its fundamentals. Investors should monitor the 200-day moving average (currently empty) and the 52-week high of $73.80 as key benchmarks. For context, Boeing (BA) is up 0.68%, indicating the sector is not in a broad rally. Act now: Buy FLY20260116C28 for a 5% upside or short FLYT if the stock breaks below $25.30. Legal outcomes and earnings reports in Q1 2026 will be critical.