Fluence Energy: A Comeback Story in Energy Storage Amid Volatility and Growth Potential

The energy storage sector is undergoing a seismic shift, driven by the global push for decarbonization and the surging demand for grid-scale solutions. Fluence Energy, a key player in this space, has emerged from a period of turbulence with a compelling narrative: a robust backlog, improved operational efficiency, and bullish analyst sentiment. Yet, the question remains: Is Fluence a compelling long-term buy, or does its recent rebound mask unresolved risks?

Operational Recovery and Strategic Onshoring

Fluence's third-quarter 2025 results underscored a tentative but meaningful recovery. Revenue rose 24.7% year-over-year to $602.5 million, with adjusted gross profit margins hitting 15.4%-a sign of improving cost discipline according to Q3 results. However, the company's full-year 2025 revenue guidance remains constrained by delays in scaling its U.S. manufacturing facilities, which have pushed some revenue into 2026 according to Q3 results. This delay, while a near-term headwind, is part of a broader strategy to onshore production.

By expanding its domestic footprint-most notably with a new facility in Goodyear, Arizona, and a Houston-based plant-Fluence is positioning itself to reduce supply chain risks and align with U.S. energy security priorities according to IESNA. These facilities now produce critical components like battery management systems (BMS) and thermal management equipment, enabling the company to serve its U.S. demand entirely with domestically made products according to IESNA. Such moves not only insulate Fluence from global supply chain volatility but also align with the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivizes local manufacturing according to market analysis.

A $5.3 Billion Backlog and Optimistic FY 2026 Outlook

Fluence's order intake in Q3 2025 totaled $508.8 million, swelling its backlog to $4.9 billion as of June 30, 2025 according to Q3 results. This figure grew further in July and August, with an additional $1.1 billion in contracts, including two large projects in Australia according to Q3 results. By Q4 2025, the company secured $1.4 billion in orders, pushing its total backlog to $5.3 billion according to financial news.

This backlog provides a strong foundation for FY 2026, during which Fluence forecasts 50% revenue growth. Notably, 85% of its FY 2026 revenue is already secured in the backlog, reducing visibility risks according to financial news. The company's adjusted EBITDA also improved to $27.4 million in Q3 2025, up from $15.6 million in the same period the prior year according to Q3 results. These metrics suggest Fluence is transitioning from a growth-at-all-costs model to one focused on profitability and execution.

Analyst Upgrades and a Favorable Policy Backdrop
Bullish sentiment has driven Fluence's stock higher in late 2025, with Citi and UBS raising price targets from $7.50 to $20 and $8 to $22, respectively, while maintaining "Neutral" ratings according to financial news. Jefferies analysts highlighted an improved U.S. policy environment, noting that key IRA disputes and U.S.-China trade tensions are nearing resolution according to market analysis. This clarity has bolstered confidence in Fluence's long-term positioning, particularly as it scales its domestic manufacturing network according to market analysis.

However, skepticism persists. While the company's backlog is impressive, investors remain cautious about its ability to sustain margin improvements and convert backlog into cash flow. U.S. revenue fell 39% in FY 2025, and meaningful revenue from data center storage-seen as a high-growth segment-is not expected until 2028 according to market analysis.

Execution and Policy Risks: A Double-Edged Sword

Fluence's operational challenges are not trivial. Delays in scaling U.S. manufacturing have already pushed revenue into 2026, and management acknowledges these were "temporary" but complex according to financial reporting. The company's ability to reach full capacity at its new facilities by year-end will be critical to restoring investor confidence according to financial reporting.

Policy risks also linger. While the IRA and reduced trade tensions have created a more favorable backdrop, Fluence's exposure to tariffs and regulatory shifts remains a concern according to market analysis. For example, its U.S. revenue fell sharply in FY 2025, partly due to delays in domestic production according to financial reporting. Investors must weigh whether Fluence's onshoring strategy can offset these risks or if further policy volatility could disrupt its growth trajectory.

Is Fluence a Compelling Long-Term Buy?

Fluence's story is one of resilience. A $5.3 billion backlog, improved gross margins, and a strategic pivot to onshoring suggest the company is well-positioned to capitalize on the energy storage boom. Analyst upgrades and a clearer policy environment add further tailwinds. However, execution risks-particularly in scaling manufacturing-and lingering policy uncertainties mean the path to profitability is not without bumps.

For long-term investors, Fluence offers a high-conviction bet on the structural growth of energy storage. The company's ability to convert its backlog into sustained revenue and navigate policy headwinds will determine whether this comeback story becomes a lasting success.