Flow/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-18

• Price surged from 0.395 to 0.416 as buyers reclaimed key levels
• Momentum picked up in morning ET with RSI near 60
• Volatility expanded with Bollinger Bands widening
• Volume spiked to 576k at 22:30 ET, confirming the breakout
• 15-minute patterns suggest bullish continuation with high conviction

24-Hour Price Action Summary

At 12:00 ET on September 17, FLOWUSDT opened at 0.395 and closed at 0.415 at 12:00 ET on September 18. The pair traded within a range of 0.393 to 0.416 during the period, with a total volume of 1,136,583.14 USD and turnover of 774,359.55 FLOW. The price action demonstrated strong buyer interest in the morning hours, supported by robust volume and a retest of prior resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bullish breakout from a consolidation pattern between 0.396 and 0.403, followed by a rally to 0.416. A series of bullish engulfing patterns emerged in the early hours of September 18, confirming a shift in sentiment. A notable inverted hammer at 0.401 preceded a strong upward move, while a doji at 0.413 suggested short-term indecision.

Support levels appear to be forming at 0.408, 0.404, and 0.399, while resistance is now at 0.416, 0.420, and 0.426. A pullback to 0.408 could confirm a consolidation before the next leg up.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart shows the price closing above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bullish trend in the short term. The daily chart would likely show the 50-period and 200-period lines converging at 0.395, suggesting a key psychological level that has been successfully retested.

The MACD turned positive after 18:00 ET, with a bullish crossover occurring around 20:30 ET, confirming the momentum shift. The RSI rose from 45 to 60, indicating strengthening bullish momentum, though it has not entered overbought territory yet.

Variability and Volume Behavior

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction during the consolidation phase, followed by a sharp expansion as price broke out. Price has remained within the upper band for most of the day, indicating elevated volatility and bullish energy.

Volume surged significantly during the breakout hours, particularly around 18:15 ET and 22:30 ET, aligning with price increases. A divergence between volume and price is not observed, indicating strong conviction in the move.

The notional turnover peaked at 201,568.88 FLOW at 18:15 ET and 150,856.84 FLOW at 05:15 ET, confirming strong participation during key price movements.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 15-minute swing from 0.393 to 0.416, key levels are at 0.408 (38.2%), 0.410 (50%), and 0.413 (61.8%). A retest of 0.408 would confirm the 38.2% level as a potential pivot point.

For the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from 0.380 to 0.416 (based on prior swings) highlight 0.400, 0.403, and 0.406 as key psychological levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering long positions on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume expansion and MACD crossover. Stops could be placed below the 0.404 level, with a target at the 0.416 resistance. A 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio would be optimal, with a maximum stop of 0.005 (~1.25%). This strategy leverages the recent trend reversal and volume confirmation, aligning with the identified Fibonacci and moving average support levels.

Forward Outlook and Risk Caveat

The market appears to be in a favorable position for bulls, with strong technical indicators and volume backing the recent rally. A continued push above 0.416 could trigger further momentum, while a consolidation to 0.408–0.404 would confirm intermediate support.

Investors should be cautious of a potential short-term pullback if the RSI overextends and volume declines. A reversal pattern forming near 0.406 could signal a near-term top, particularly if Bollinger Bands begin to contract again.