FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) Market Overview for 2025-09-26

• FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) declined by 2.7% over 24 hours amid increased volatility and bearish momentum.
• Key support tested near 7.95e-05, with a rejection forming a potential bullish reversal pattern.
• Volume surged during the 12:00–16:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp pullback and a large 15-minute candle.
• RSI showed oversold conditions near 30 by 21:00 ET, hinting at a possible short-term rebound.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply overnight, indicating heightened volatility and potential range extension.

FLOKI/Tether (FLOKIUSDT) opened at 8.235e-05 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 8.249e-05, and closed at 7.998e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-26. The 24-hour session recorded a total volume of 84,616,945,780.0 and a turnover of 681,331.1 USDT. The price action reflected bearish control for most of the session, punctuated by a sharp pullback and signs of stabilizing demand.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart showed a key rejection level forming at 7.95e-05, where price bounced from 7.904e-05. A potential bullish reversal pattern (engulfing) formed at this level. A large bearish candle during the 19:00–23:00 ET window reflected heightened selling pressure, with a notable doji near 7.95e-05 indicating indecision. Key resistance remains at 8.05e-05, while 7.90e-05 may serve as a critical support level ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in bearish alignment, with the price currently below both. The 20SMA is at 7.995e-05, and the 50SMA is at 8.014e-05. The 50-period MA on the daily chart sits at 8.05e-05, and the 200-period MA is at 8.07e-05. Price remains below all key moving averages, suggesting bearish momentum may persist.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 21:00–23:00 ET window, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram has been shrinking since 03:00 ET, indicating a potential slowdown in the downward thrust. The RSI bottomed near 30 at 21:00 ET, suggesting short-term oversold conditions and potential for a bounce. However, the RSI remains below 50, reinforcing the bearish tone.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the 02:00–06:00 ET window as volatility increased. The price has remained within the band boundaries, hovering near the lower band since 06:00 ET. A break above the midline could signal short-term bullish potential, while a break below the lower band would reaffirm bearish control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged between 12:00–16:00 ET, with a 15-minute candle on 2025-09-25 at 17:30 ET recording the highest volume at 12,250,061,812.0. This coincided with the most significant decline of the session. Notional turnover peaked at this time as well. However, volume declined after 05:00 ET, suggesting waning bearish conviction. A divergence between price and volume after 08:00 ET may hint at a potential reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 2025-09-25 16:00–22:00 ET bearish swing shows the 38.2% level at 7.98e-05 and the 61.8% level at 7.92e-05. Price currently rests near the 38.2% retracement, suggesting potential for a bounce or a deeper pullback. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level from the 2025-09-20 high to the recent low is at 7.89e-05.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish bias and oversold conditions observed in the RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a long entry at or near the 38.2% Fibonacci level (7.98e-05) with a stop-loss just below the 7.90e-05 support. A target could be set at the 50% Fibonacci level of the same bearish swing at 7.99e-05. This approach would aim to capitalize on a potential short-term rebound while managing risk through a tight stop. Historical testing would be necessary to validate the effectiveness of this setup across similar price environments.