Flamingo/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-10)

Summary
• Price fell from 0.0227 to 0.0199 on high-volume breakdowns in late ET hours.
• Momentum slowed into oversold territory, with RSI hitting key 30 level.
• Volatility expanded on Bollinger Band widening, signaling increased uncertainty.

FLMUSDT opened at 0.0218 on 2025-11-09 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0199 by 2025-11-10 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0227 and a low of 0.0189. The total traded volume was 78,339,513 FLM, and the notional turnover was approximately $1,563,430, calculated using the closing prices and volumes from each candle.

Structure & Formations

Price action on FLMUSDT formed a bearish continuation pattern from 0.0227 to 0.0199, supported by a strong breakdown candle at 0.0217, which marked the start of a sharp decline. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 0.0222, followed by a long bearish shadow at 0.0216, suggesting strong seller pressure. No significant bullish reversal patterns emerged, though a doji near 0.0191 hinted at potential short-term indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA crossed below the 50-period SMA, indicating a bearish bias. The 50-period SMA currently sits at ~0.0204, while the 20-period SMA has dropped to ~0.0201. On the daily chart, the 200-period SMA acts as a key long-term resistance at ~0.0218, suggesting further downside could be expected if the trend persists.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a negative crossover (death-cross) at ~0.0222, confirming the bearish shift. The RSI dipped below 30 into oversold territory, reaching ~27 at 0.0191, which may signal a potential bounce or consolidation. However, bearish momentum remains strong, suggesting a continuation lower is more likely than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 15-minute breakdowns, with the Bollinger Band width increasing from ~0.0002 to ~0.0006. The price currently sits near the lower band at 0.0191, indicating it is trading near a short-term support level. A contraction phase may be ahead, signaling possible consolidation or a reversal if buyers enter near the lower band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged on the breakdown at 0.0217 with a 15-minute volume of ~5,382,500 FLM, confirming the bearish move. Turnover spiked at 0.0206 with ~4,844,473 FLM traded, aligning with the price drop. However, volume has weakened in the past few hours, which could indicate a loss of bearish conviction and a potential pause in the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from the 0.0227 high to the 0.0191 low sit at ~0.0214 and ~0.0203, respectively. Price tested both levels but failed to hold above them, reinforcing the bearish bias. If the trend continues, the next support target would be the 78.6% retracement at ~0.0195.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent MACD death-cross at 0.0222 could serve as an entry signal for short-term bearish strategies. However, the event-study backtest failed due to a missing price series for FLMUSDT. To proceed, the price data (e.g., daily close prices) could be explicitly provided to the engine to resolve the “price” variable issue. Alternatively, a rule-based strategy using the strategy_backtest_engine could be implemented: open a short on death-cross, and close on next golden-cross or after a fixed number of days. This approach would allow for a P&L, drawdown, and win-rate analysis without relying on the event-study module.