Five Key Speculations on Trump's Return to the White House

With Donald Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the global political and economic landscape is bracing for a new wave of uncertainty. Trump's return marks a significant shift in U.S. politics and could have far-reaching implications for the global economy and geopolitical relations. Here are five key policy directions to watch as Trump embarks on his second term:

1. Will Elon Musk Join Trump's Cabinet?

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has long been rumored as a potential cabinet member in Trump's administration. In August 2024, when asked about the possibility of appointing Musk to his cabinet or as an advisor, Trump remarked, Musk is a very smart person. If he's willing, I would certainly do it. Musk later responded on social media, expressing his willingness to serve, while promoting his cryptocurrency, Dogecoin.

Trump's first term saw him appoint several business leaders, such as Rex Tillerson, the CEO of ExxonMobil, and Betsy DeVos, a billionaire philanthropist. Given Musk's influence in the tech and space sectors, he could play a prominent role in a Trump administration, particularly as the U.S. continues to push for advancements in space exploration and electric vehicles.

2. Will Trump Pressure the Federal Reserve on Interest Rate Hikes?

Trump has been vocal in criticizing the Federal Reserve's monetary policies, especially during his first term when the Fed began its rate hikes. He has historically favored looser monetary conditions to support his expansionary fiscal policies, including tax cuts and infrastructure spending. Trump has previously broken the tradition of non-interference in monetary policy by publicly criticizing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for raising rates, arguing that it was hindering U.S. economic growth.

Analysts believe that a second term under Trump could lead to further pressure on the Fed, particularly as he pursues aggressive fiscal policies. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan, noted that Trump's policies could push inflation higher and limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, potentially leading to higher interest rates.

3. Will Trump Intervene in the Russia-Ukraine War?

Trump has consistently claimed that he could bring the Russia-Ukraine war to a swift end through direct negotiations. His aide, JD Vance, proposed a controversial 24-Hour Peace Plan, suggesting that Trump would initiate talks with Russia, Ukraine, and European stakeholders to reach a peaceful settlement.

The plan, as outlined by Vance, would likely involve Ukraine maintaining its sovereignty, while Russia would be assured that Ukraine would not join NATO or other allied organizations. If Trump follows through on these promises, his administration could dramatically shift U.S. foreign policy on the war in Ukraine and its involvement in NATO defense commitments.

4. Will Trump Raise Tariffs, Especially on China?

Trump's trade policies were a hallmark of his first term, with a heavy focus on imposing tariffs, particularly on Chinese goods. In 2023, Trump hinted at reintroducing high tariffs on foreign products if he were to win a second term, specifically targeting China's automotive industry. He has also proposed a universal baseline tariff of 10% on all imports entering the U.S.

Furthermore, reports indicate that Trump has privately discussed the possibility of imposing a 60% tariff on all Chinese imports. This would represent a significant escalation in the U.S.-China trade war and could have major implications for global supply chains and trade relations.

5. Will Trump Pardon Himself?

Amid ongoing legal challenges and investigations, Trump's potential for self-pardon has become a widely discussed issue. In August 2024, Trump stated, "We are going to win this election, and we are going to take back our country on November 5." He has continued to claim that his legal trials are manipulated, denying all charges against him.

Given the number of legal battles he faces, including 34 charges related to the hush money scandal, Trump's potential to pardon himself, should he win a second term, is a topic of intense speculation. Some have suggested that he could even pardon himself if incarcerated, allowing him to serve as president from prison and subsequently pardon himself once in office.