FIO Protocol/Tether Market Overview

• Price dipped from 0.01353 to 0.01304 over 24 hours, closing near support.
• Volume spiked during key resistance breaks and consolidating lows.
• RSI and MACD show weakening momentum, suggesting bearish pressure.
• Bollinger Bands widened during volatile downswing, now contracting.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.0131–0.0132 suggest near-term support.

FIO Protocol/Tether (FIOUSDT) opened at 0.01335 on 2025-10-26 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.01353, then consolidated lower to a low of 0.01301 before closing at 0.01315 on 2025-10-27 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 30,411,014.0, with a notional turnover of approximately $401,488. Price action reflected bearish pressure amid fluctuating demand and oversold RSI readings.

Structure & Formations

Price encountered strong resistance between 0.01346 and 0.01353, where a series of bearish engulfing patterns and rejection candles marked failed breakouts. A key support level at 0.0131–0.0132 was tested multiple times, with a final rejection at 0.01301 signaling short-term stability. A long lower wick at 0.01301–0.01312 suggests buying interest at the lower end, although it failed to hold above 0.01315. The formation suggests a possible consolidation period ahead if the immediate support holds.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both trended lower, reflecting sustained bearish pressure. The daily chart shows the 50-period SMA crossing below the 200-period SMA in a death cross pattern, reinforcing the bearish bias. Price remains below all key moving averages, indicating further downside potential unless a strong reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The RSI dropped into oversold territory during the low at 0.01301, reaching a trough near 28, before a minor rebound. This suggests that further declines may be limited, though momentum remains weak. The MACD line crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence, confirming the downward trend. However, the RSI’s oversold condition may hint at a short-term bounce in the near term, though this is unlikely to reverse the broader bearish structure.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the downward move, with the bands widening to over 0.0004. Price has since settled within the lower half of the bands, suggesting continued bearish pressure. A contraction in the bands now signals a possible period of consolidation, though a break below the lower band would confirm a deeper bearish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during key resistance breaks and as price approached 0.01301, indicating increased selling pressure. However, the volume profile shows divergence during the rebound phase—volume decreased during the rally, suggesting weak conviction. Turnover aligned with volume trends, with the largest notional value occurring during the 0.01346–0.01353 resistance cluster. The declining volume during the consolidation phase implies weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.01301–0.01353 swing, key retracement levels of 38.2% (~0.01328) and 61.8% (~0.01339) are currently acting as minor resistance levels. Price is consolidating around the 0.01314–0.0132 level, which is a critical Fibonacci support zone. A break below this level could open the path to 0.01301, while a move back above 0.0132 may signal a short-term reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Before running the backtest for bearish engulfing patterns and key resistance levels, we need to ensure the correct trading pair is used (e.g., FIOUSDT or FIO/USDT). The current dataset appears incomplete, as the data provider could not locate basic information for the symbol. Confirming the exact ticker and whether the data pertains to spot or futures is critical to avoid misalignment in historical pattern identification. Once confirmed, we can re-query the technical-indicator service and proceed with backtesting the bearish strategy from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-27. The strategy will assess signal reliability based on resistance breakdowns and candlestick patterns, with performance metrics including win rate and average return.