How to Find Strong Oils and Energy Stocks Slated for Positive Earnings Surprises

Quarterly financial reports play a vital role on Wall Street, as they help investors see how a company has performed and what might be coming down the road in the near-term. And out of all of the metrics and results to consider, earnings is one of the most important.

The earnings figure itself is key, of course, but a beat or miss on the bottom line can sometimes be just as, if not more, important. Therefore, investors should consider paying close attention to these earnings surprises, as a big beat can help a stock climb and vice versa.

Now that we know how important earnings and earnings surprises are, it's time to show investors how to take advantage of these events to boost their returns by utilizing the Zacks Earnings ESP filter.

The Zacks Earnings ESP, Explained

The Zacks Earnings ESP is more formally known as the Expected Surprise Prediction, and it aims to grab the inside track on the latest analyst estimate revisions ahead of a company's report. The idea is relatively intuitive as a newer projection might be based on more complete information.

The core of the ESP model is comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, where the resulting percentage difference between the two equals the Expected Surprise Prediction. The Zacks Rank is also factored into the ESP metric to better help find companies that appear poised to top their next bottom-line consensus estimate, which will hopefully help lift the stock price.

When we join a positive earnings ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger, stocks posted a positive bottom-line surprise 70% of the time. Plus, this system saw investors produce roughly 28% annual returns on average, according to our 10 year backtest.

Stocks with a ranking of #3 (Hold), or 60% of all stocks covered by the Zacks Rank, are expected to perform in-line with the broader market. Stocks with rankings of #2 (Buy) and #1 (Strong Buy), or the top 15% and top 5% of stocks, respectively, should outperform the market; Strong Buy stocks should outperform more than any other rank.

Should You Consider Kinder Morgan?

The last thing we will do today, now that we have a grasp on the ESP and how powerful of a tool it can be, is to quickly look at a qualifying stock. Kinder Morgan (KMI) holds a #3 (Hold) at the moment and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at $0.39 a share 30 days away from its upcoming earnings release on April 15, 2026.

Kinder Morgan's Earnings ESP sits at +5.49%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the $0.39 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.37. KMI is also part of a large group of stocks that boast a positive ESP. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.

KMI is part of a big group of Oils and Energy stocks that boast a positive ESP, and investors may want to take a look at Transocean (RIG) as well.

Transocean, which is readying to report earnings on April 27, 2026, sits at a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) right now. Its Most Accurate Estimate is currently $0.08 a share, and RIG is 42 days out from its next earnings report.

For Transocean, the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.06 is +28.00%.

KMI and RIG's positive ESP figures tell us that both stocks have a good chance at beating analyst expectations in their next earnings report.

Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported

Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>

Should You Invest in Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI)?

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Kinder Morgan, Inc. (KMI): Free Stock Analysis Report

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This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).

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