Filecoin/Tether Market Overview for 2025-11-06

Summary
• Price traded in a 24-hour range of 1.34–1.419, with bearish bias in the second half.
• High volatility seen after 02:00 ET, with large 1.394 to 1.417 move.
• Volume spiked over 600k FIL at 14:00 ET, aligning with key resistance break.

FILUSDT opened at 1.393 at 12:00 ET–1 (2025-11-05) and traded as high as 1.419 before closing at 1.39 at 12:00 ET (2025-11-06). The total volume over 24 hours was ~18.9M FIL, while the notional turnover reached ~$26.5M. Price action suggests a bearish continuation from earlier resistance levels.

The structure of the 15-minute candles shows multiple attempts to break above 1.405–1.410 without conviction. A bullish engulfing pattern briefly emerged at 18:15 ET–1 (2025-11-05), but it failed to hold. Below 1.400, price has found temporary support at 1.375–1.385, where multiple consolidation phases have occurred. A notable bearish divergence appears in the latter part of the day, with volume increasing as price declines, hinting at exhaustion in the short-term buyers.

MACD appears to be flattening, indicating weakening momentum, while RSI (14) appears to have entered oversold territory after the sharp drop below 1.380 in the early morning hours. Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion after the 02:00 ET–1 spike, with price now hovering near the lower band, suggesting elevated volatility. The 20-period moving average has crossed below the 50-period MA, forming a potential bearish signal for the short-term.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the key 1.373–1.419 swing reveal a potential support at 61.8% (1.396) and resistance at 38.2% (1.404). A break below the 1.375 level could trigger a deeper retest of the 1.35–1.36 cluster. Over the next 24 hours, traders may watch for a potential reversal pattern near 1.375–1.380 or a continuation of the bearish bias should the 1.370 level fail to hold.

Backtest Hypothesis
To validate potential trading opportunities in FILUSDT, a backtesting strategy could be employed using RSI-14 and the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern. The idea is to enter long positions when RSI falls to 30 or below and a bullish engulfing pattern is observed on the same day. After entering, the position is held for one day before exiting. Given the current RSI oversold conditions and potential reversal signs near key support levels, this strategy may offer insights into the strength of buyers at critical price points. Once the correct ticker symbol is confirmed, historical data can be retrieved, and the backtest can be executed across a defined time horizon.