Filecoin/Tether (FILUSDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-12)

• Price declined from 1.672 to 1.515 but showed a bullish reversal from early morning lows.
• Volatility expanded in the early hours of the 24-hour window.
• Key support at 1.555 held, with a possible test of 1.53–1.55.
• Turnover surged at 15:00 ET as FILUSDT rebounded over 5%.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to neutral in the final 4–6 hours.

FILUSDT opened at 1.653 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.672, fell to a low of 1.501, and closed at 1.558 as of 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was 26,045,362.58 FIL, with a notional turnover of approximately $39.7 million. The pair showed a bearish-to-neutral transition in its final hours.

Structure & Formations

FILUSDT traded within a clear descending triangle on the 15-minute chart, with key resistance at 1.64–1.65 and a critical support level at 1.555. A bullish reversal candle emerged around 15:00 ET (UTC+0) after a sharp drop, suggesting a short-term bottoming process. A 50+50 bullish engulfing pattern formed between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, confirming a short-term bounce. A doji at 1.563 also appeared at 12:45 ET, signaling indecision before the price resumed its upward trajectory.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price traded above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages after 15:00 ET, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. The 20-period MA acted as a dynamic support between 1.557 and 1.565. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA earlier in the session, but the crossover reversed around 15:15 ET, indicating a potential short-term bullish signal.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive after 15:00 ET, with a bullish crossover supporting the price rebound. The RSI fell into oversold territory below 30 for several hours, confirming the bearish phase, but rose above 50 after 15:30 ET, aligning with the price reversal. A potential overbought condition may develop if the RSI exceeds 60 in the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the lower band for most of the session before bouncing back toward the mid-band around 15:00 ET. A volatility expansion occurred in the first 4 hours, which compressed as the price stabilized. Price has since remained within the bands, suggesting a period of consolidation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked around 15:00 ET at $11.8 million in turnover, coinciding with a strong price rebound. Notional turnover was generally aligned with price action throughout the 24-hour period. Divergence between volume and price was minimal, suggesting solid conviction in the reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing low of 1.501 and high of 1.672, the 38.2% retracement level sits at ~1.603, and the 61.8% retracement at ~1.567. The price found temporary support at the 61.8% level around 1.567, then bounced to the 50% level (~1.586) by the end of the window. The 15-minute chart showed a similar Fibonacci structure from the 1.515 low to 1.647 high, with strong support at 1.557–1.558.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern and alignment with Fibonacci and moving average crossovers, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a mean-reversion setup triggered by a 15-minute RSI dipping below 30, followed by a bullish engulfing or doji pattern. A long entry could be placed on confirmation of a 50-period MA crossover above the 20-period MA, with a stop-loss below the recent swing low of 1.551. A take-profit could be set at the 61.8% retracement level (~1.567) and extended to the 50% level (~1.586) if volume and momentum confirm strength. This setup would aim to capture a rebound from oversold conditions during a short-term consolidation phase.