Is Figma (FIG) a Mispriced Growth Opportunity Amid a Valuation Reset?

The stock market is a theater of competing narratives, and Figma (FIG) has become a central character in a particularly contentious drama. On one side, analysts argue the design platform is undervalued, with a narrative fair value of $65.70-nearly 65% above its current price of $39.48. On the other, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model suggests a fair value of just $19.62, implying the stock is still overpriced despite a 67% year-to-date decline. This valuation split reflects a broader debate: Is Figma's recent selloff a contrarian buying opportunity, or is the market finally correcting a long-overdue mispricing?

The Narrative of Growth: AI as a Catalyst

Figma's bullish case hinges on its aggressive AI integration and product expansion. According to a report by Edge.n, the company has launched tools like Figma Make, Figma Buzz, and Figma Sites, which leverage models such as Gemini 3 Pro and ChatGPT to automate design workflows according to Edge.n. These tools are not just incremental upgrades-they represent a reimagining of the product development lifecycle, from ideation to deployment. For instance, 30% of Figma's high-annual-recurring-revenue (ARR) customers use Figma Make weekly, and one in three users have launched AI-powered products.

The company's acquisition of Weavy, an Israeli AI startup, further underscores its commitment to embedding cutting-edge capabilities into its platform. By integrating models like Seedance and Sora, Figma is positioning itself as a flexible, AI-first design ecosystem. This strategy has driven robust customer growth: Figma added 90,000 paid teams in two quarters, reaching 540,000 total paid customers. Such momentum supports the $65.70 narrative fair value, which assumes Figma can sustain its 46% year-over-year revenue growth and 91% gross margins.

The DCF Dilemma: Profitability vs. Growth

Yet the DCF model tells a different story. At $19.62, it reflects a more conservative view of Figma's long-term prospects. The discrepancy arises from assumptions about growth sustainability and competitive dynamics. While Figma's 28% free cash flow margin is impressive, the DCF model likely discounts future cash flows at a higher rate, accounting for risks such as slowing adoption of AI tools or aggressive competition from Adobe and Atlassian.

Moreover, Figma's price-to-sales ratio of 20.2x remains steep compared to the broader software sector, even as its stock has fallen. This suggests that while the company's fundamentals are strong, the market may still be pricing in a level of dominance that is hard to sustain. As one analyst noted, "The DCF model is a reality check. Figma's AI bets are bold, but they require execution at scale to justify those multiples" according to Simply Wall St.

Product Expansion and Market Dynamics

Figma's product ecosystem has expanded beyond design tools to include FigJam for collaboration and Dev Mode for developer integration, reinforcing its position as a one-stop shop for product teams. However, the 2025 Figma AI Report reveals a critical challenge: only 32% of designers trust AI-generated designs. This skepticism highlights the gap between technological capability and user adoption-a hurdle that could slow the pace of AI-driven growth.

Meanwhile, competitors are closing in. Adobe's Firefly and Atlassian's AI-powered collaboration tools are attracting users who might otherwise gravitate toward Figma. The market is evolving rapidly, and Figma's ability to maintain its first-mover advantage in AI will determine whether its valuation reset is a buying opportunity or a warning sign.

Contrarian Valuation: A Tug-of-War Between Optimism and Prudence

The 67% YTD drop in Figma's stock price has created a rift between optimists and skeptics. For contrarians, the current price of $39.48 sits between the $65.70 narrative fair value and the $19.62 DCF fair value, offering a potential sweet spot. The key question is whether Figma's AI-driven product expansion can bridge the gap between these two models.

On the bullish side, Figma's 34% year-over-year increase in users shipping AI-powered applications (up from 22% in 2024) suggests its tools are resonating. On the bearish side, the DCF model's $19.62 price tag implies the market expects a significant slowdown in growth or margin compression.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet

Figma's valuation reset is neither a clear buy nor a definitive sell-it is a calculated bet on the company's ability to execute its AI vision. For investors willing to take a contrarian stance, the current price offers a middle ground: a discount to the optimistic narrative fair value while still reflecting the DCF model's caution. However, the risks remain significant. If Figma falters in its AI integration or faces a surge in competitive threats, the $39.48 price could still be a stretch.

In the end, Figma's story is one of transformation. Whether it becomes a mispriced gem or a cautionary tale depends on how well it can turn its AI ambitions into tangible, scalable value.