Ferrari Stock Tests Key 475 Support As Death Cross Signals 60 Percent Chance Of 440 Retest

Candlestick Theory
Recent Ferrari price action displays consolidation near the $477 level, with multiple small-bodied candles indicating indecision. The 2025-07-31 session formed a decisive bearish marubozu (close near low of $443.39), establishing a key resistance at $460–$465. Current support near $475–$477 aligns with August’s consolidation low (2025-08-25). A breakdown below $475 on elevated volume may trigger further downside, while a close above $485 could signal bullish conviction.
Moving Average Theory
Ferrari’s 50-day MA (~$468) converges with the 100-day MA (~$475), creating dynamic resistance. The 200-day MA (~$485) caps recent rallies, confirming the bearish medium-term structure. Price trading below all three major MAs reflects persistent selling pressure. A "death cross" (50-day crossing below 200-day in early August) further validates the downtrend. Reclaiming the 100-day MA would be the first sign of trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD (12,26,9) shows a narrowing bearish histogram, suggesting slowing downside momentum but remains below its signal line. KDJ (9,3,3) oscillates near oversold territory (K: 32, D: 38, J: 20), yet no bullish crossover has materialized. This divergence hints at potential exhaustion in selling pressure but requires confirmation through KDJ crossing above 20 and MACD signal line reversal.
Bollinger Bands
Contraction to a 20-day bandwidth of ~5% (vs. 15% in July) signals historically low volatility. Price hugging the lower band ($475) reflects persistent weakness. A close below $475 risks triggering volatility expansion toward the $460 support. Conversely, a move above the middle band ($482) would indicate short-term bullish momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July sell-off (2025-07-31) saw record volume (-11% decline), confirming distribution. Recent rebounds lack volume conviction (e.g., 08-28 +2.05% on below-average volume). The 08-14 rally (+2.93%) with high volume establishes $460 as validated support. Current low-volume consolidation near $477 warns of fragile price stability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Daily RSI (14-period) hovers at 42, avoiding oversold extremes but trending downward. The absence of <30 readings since April 2025 suggests bearish momentum dominance. RSI divergence is absent, limiting reversal signals. Neutral positioning implies vulnerability to bearish catalysts.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the 2024-11 peak ($476) and 2025-04 trough ($397):
- Critical 38.2% retracement ($440) held during July–August declines.
- 50% level ($436) aligns with the July low ($428.52), offering major support.
- Resistance clusters at 23.6% ($457) and 0% retracement ($476), creating overhead supply.
Confluence & Probabilistic Outlook
Multiple technical elements converge at $437–$440: 200-week MA support, 38.2% Fibonacci level, and July swing low. This zone presents a high-probability bounce area if tested. Conversely, failure to hold $475 may accelerate losses toward $460. Divergence exists between oversold KDJ signals and bearish MA/volume structures, creating ambiguity. Until Ferrari reclaims its 100-day MA ($475) with volume expansion, technicals favor range-bound or bearish outcomes with a ~60% probability of retesting $440–$445 support.