Ferrari Stock Rises 2.23% Over Two Days Nearing Key $452 Resistance

Ferrari (RACE) concluded the latest session at $451.21, posting a 1.13% gain and marking two consecutive positive days with a cumulative 2.23% advance. This brings the stock near its session high of $452.35, a level warranting technical scrutiny.
Candlestick Theory
Price action reveals key technical thresholds. The August 13th session formed a bullish candle with a high of $452.35, immediately establishing near-term resistance. Recent consolidation between $440 and $448 formed a base, with the double-day rally validating $440 as sturdy support. A prominent swing high at $519.10 (July 25, 2025) and swing low at $391.54 (December 18, 2024) frame the broader range. The close approaching $452.35 suggests bullish conviction, though rejection here may trigger profit-taking.
Moving Average Theory
Positioning relative to key moving averages reflects persistent headwinds. The 50-day SMA (currently near $465) looms as dynamic resistance, consistently capping recovery attempts since late July. More critically, the death cross—where the 50-day SMA sunk below both the 100-day ($475) and 200-day ($460) averages—signals entrenched bearish momentum in the intermediate term. Current price trades below all three major averages, affirming the downtrend. Only a decisive break above the 50-day SMA would hint at trend reversal potential.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
Divergent momentum signals emerge. The MACD histogram shows improving bullish momentum, rising from its August trough despite prices testing July lows—a positive divergence suggesting selling pressure abates. However, the KDJ oscillator flashes overbought conditions, with the %K line (83) and %D line (78) exceeding the 70 threshold. While KDJ’s bullish crossover supports the recent rally, its overbought state implies limited near-term upside without consolidation. This opposes MACD’s constructive base-building signal.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility contraction heightens breakout potential. The bands tightened significantly after mid-July’s expansion, with the 20-day bandwidth narrowing to 4% (versus 8% peak volatility). Price currently hugs the upper band near $452.50, indicating upward momentum but also vulnerability to rejection. A sustained close above this level could trigger volatility expansion and continuation targeting $460, while failure may revert prices toward the middle band ($445).
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume dynamics validate the rebound. The two-day ascent occurred on rising volume (353k→468k shares), exceeding the 30-day average (~450k shares). Notably, the July 31st sell-off climaxed with extreme volume (1.68M shares), likely flushing out weak holders. Subsequent basing phases saw volume decline, supporting the thesis that supply exhaustion preceded the current recovery. Sustained gains above $452 will require persistent volume conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI at 62 positions Ferrari in neutral-bullish territory, having rebounded from an oversold 27 in late July. This upward trajectory aligns with the price recovery but does not yet indicate overbought risks (sub-70). The current reading permits additional upside, provided momentum persists. However, its divergence from the overbought KDJ warrants monitoring for potential exhaustion near resistance.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fib levels to the $519.10–$391.54 swing reveals critical confluences. The 38.2% retracement ($453.50) converges precisely with the August 13th high ($452.35), creating a technical pivot zone. Recent rejection here underscores its significance. Overcoming $453.50 would target the 50% level ($455.50), while failure may retest the 23.6% support ($439). The July low ($441.35) further strengthens $440 as a multi-source demand zone.
Confluence and Divergence Summary
Critical resistance near $452.35–$453.50 enjoys multi-indicator validation: Bollinger Band upper limit, Fib 38.2% retracement, and psychological $450 barrier converge here. Volume-backed bullish candlesticks strengthen the breakout case. However, material divergences persist—overbought KDJ readings conflict with improving MACD and neutral RSI, introducing near-term consolidation risks. For bullish momentum to accelerate, Ferrari must breach $453.50 with confirmed volume, which may then target the 50-day SMA ($465). Downside vulnerability remains while below the moving average cluster, with $440 serving as a must-hold support.