Ferrari's Stock Plummets 2.9% Amid F1 Woes and Earnings Downgrades – What's Next for the Prancing Horse?

Summary
• Ferrari (RACE) trades at $364.47, down 2.9% intraday, with a 52-week low of $356.97 now in play.
• Jefferies cuts 2026 EPS estimates to €9.32, 7% below consensus, citing margin dilution and shipment delays.
• Charles Leclerc’s 'now or never' F1 warning and Lewis Hamilton’s exit from Ferrari amplify investor unease.
• Technicals show RSI at 34.9 (oversold), MACD -7.63, and Bollinger Bands pinning price near lower bound at $366.53.

Today’s sharp selloff in Ferrari’s stock reflects a confluence of deteriorating fundamentals in its core automotive business and existential uncertainty in Formula 1. With Jefferies downgrading earnings estimates and key drivers signaling a make-or-break 2026 for the team, the stock’s technical breakdown below critical support levels has triggered a wave of panic selling.

F1 Performance Crisis and Earnings Downgrades Fuel Sell-Off
The collapse in RACE shares stems from a perfect storm of on-track failures and financial underperformance. Ferrari’s 2025 F1 season—its first without a win since 2006—has eroded confidence in the team’s ability to adapt to new regulations. Charles Leclerc’s blunt ‘now or never’ warning underscores the urgency for 2026, while Lewis Hamilton’s admission of lacking a ‘mindset for next year’ highlights internal dysfunction. Compounding this, Jefferies slashed 2026 EPS forecasts by 7%, citing margin compression from accelerated model launches and shipment delays. The firm now expects Ferrari to underperform consensus for three consecutive years, triggering a flight to safety in the stock.

Automotive Sector Volatility Amid EV Sector Rally
While Tesla (TSLA) surged 2.4% on renewed EV demand optimism, Ferrari’s luxury sports car segment faces unique headwinds. Unlike EV peers benefiting from regulatory tailwinds, Ferrari’s high-margin model is vulnerable to shifting consumer preferences and F1-related brand equity risks. The 3.9% drop in RACE contrasts sharply with TSLA’s resilience, highlighting divergent trajectories in the automotive sector.

Bearish Technicals and High-Leverage Options for Short-Term Bets
• Technical Indicators: RSI 34.9 (oversold), MACD -7.63 (bearish), 200D MA $453.56 (far above price).
• Key Levels: Immediate support at $356.97 (52W low), resistance at $366.53 (Bollinger Lower Band).
• Options Focus: High-leverage puts and calls with moderate delta for directional bets.

Top Options:
• RACE20251219P350 (Put): Strike $350, Expiry 12/19, IV 33.18%, Leverage 141.22%, Delta -0.219, Theta -0.0178, Gamma 0.014759. High leverage and moderate delta position this as a top pick for a 5% downside scenario (projected payoff: $3.75).
• RACE20260116C380 (Call): Strike $380, Expiry 1/16, IV 28.66%, Leverage 47.32%, Delta 0.3549, Theta -0.2703, Gamma 0.011043. Strong theta decay and moderate delta make this ideal for a short-term bounce trade.

Aggressive bears should prioritize RACE20251219P350 for a 5% downside target, while bulls may test RACE20260116C380 if the stock rebounds above $366.53. Both contracts offer high liquidity (turnover $150k+), ensuring smooth execution.

Backtest Ferrari Stock Performance
The backtest of RACE's performance after an intraday plunge of at least -3% from 2022 to the present shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 56.18%, the 10-Day win rate is 54.23%, and the 30-Day win rate is 56.83%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest was 4.82%, which occurred on day 58, suggesting that while there is some volatility, RACE can exhibit strong recovery in the following weeks.

Critical Juncture for Ferrari: Watch 2026 Earnings and F1 Turnaround
Ferrari’s stock is at a pivotal inflection point, with technicals and fundamentals aligning for a potential 2026 turnaround. While the 52-week low at $356.97 offers a short-term floor, the broader bearish trend (200D MA $453.56) suggests further consolidation. Investors must monitor 2026 earnings guidance and F1 performance in early 2026. Tesla’s 2.4% rally underscores sector divergence, but Ferrari’s unique risks—driver uncertainty and margin pressures—demand caution. Action: Buy RACE20251219P350 for downside protection or hold cash until the 2026 regulatory shift provides clarity.