Ferguson Plunges 6.25% As Death Cross Signals Prolonged Downtrend

Ferguson Enterprises (FERG) experienced a significant decline of 6.25% in the latest session, closing at $211.61 after testing a low of $210.12. This sharp drop warrants a multi-faceted technical assessment based on historical price and volume data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals heightened bearish momentum. The session on 2025-09-12 formed a long red candle with minimal lower wick, indicating sustained selling pressure near $210. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged on 2025-09-09, foreshadowing the breakdown below key support near $225-$228. This zone now serves as resistance after the decisive breach. Historical support at $200-202 (tested in Q4 2024 and Q2 2025) becomes the next critical floor. A long upper wick on 2025-09-11 near $226 signals rejection, reinforcing resistance.
Moving Average Theory
A clear deterioration in trend structure is evident. The price has broken below the 50-day MA (~$220), which itself crossed bearishly under the 200-day MA (~$215) in late August – a classic "death cross" suggesting entrenched medium-term bearish bias. The current price trades below all key MAs (50/100/200-day), confirming the downtrend. The 200-day MA has flattened after acting as support through Q1-Q2 2025, indicating potential trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD lines are deep in negative territory, with the histogram expanding downward since early September. This signals strengthening downward momentum and absence of bullish divergence. KDJ shows sustained oversold conditions (K:18, D:21, J:12), but without bullish crossover confirmation. Extreme oversold readings may foreshadow a technical bounce, though continued MACD deterioration suggests caution.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expansion accompanies the breakdown, with price piercing the lower band on 09-12 before closing marginally within bands. Bandwidth has increased by ~40% during September’s decline, confirming high momentum selling. The lower band now sits near $207, while the middle band (~$222) aligns with resistance. Continued closes below the lower band would indicate capitulation.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns validate the bearish trend. The three highest volume days in Q3 2025 (09-12, 09-11, and 09-04) all coincided with price declines, signaling institutional selling. The 09-12 volume (4.18M shares) was 50% above the 20-day average, confirming conviction behind the breakdown. Low volume on rally attempts (e.g., 09-05 and 08-04) highlighted lack of buyer commitment.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI (14-period) now reads 31, approaching oversold territory but not yet extreme. Critically, it failed to breach 70 during August’s consolidation, reflecting waning bullish strength. While oversold conditions may trigger short-term bounces, RSI divergence is absent – the latest low matches its late August low despite lower prices, suggesting momentum hasn’t diverged bullishly.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the June 2024 low ($196.52) to December 2024 peak ($219), key levels emerge. The 50% retracement ($207.76) and 61.8% level ($205.32) align with the psychological $205-$208 support zone. This area overlaps with the 2024-09-20 swing low, creating a technical confluence zone. Failure here exposes the June 2024 lows sub-$200.
Confluence & Divergence
Strong confluence exists at $205-$208, where Fibonacci support, the 2024 swing low, and Bollinger’s lower band intersect. A breakdown below would likely accelerate selling. The primary divergence is between oversold KDJ/RSI readings and continuous MACD deterioration – momentum indicators conflict on reversal potential. Volume confirms bearish bias, however, as capitulatory patterns dominate. Traders should monitor for bullish reversal signals like hammer candles or MACD convergence near the $205 support, though prevailing evidence suggests further downside risk toward $200 in the near term.