FedEx Shares Surge 3.52% on Three-Day Rally Technical Analysis Flags Bullish Momentum Amid Overbought Conditions

FedEx (FDX) is currently experiencing a 3.52% gain in the most recent session, extending its upward momentum for three consecutive days with a cumulative rise of 6.60%. This immediate price action, coupled with the historical data, provides a robust foundation for a technical analysis across multiple frameworks.

Candlestick Theory

The recent three-day rally suggests a potential bullish continuation pattern, with the price forming higher highs and higher lows. Key support levels emerge around the $288.86–$291.06 range, where prior consolidation occurred, while resistance is evident near $307.93, the January 6 high. A bullish engulfing pattern may be forming as the price surpasses prior resistance, but caution is warranted if the next candle closes below the 200-day moving average (~$234–$240), which could invalidate the short-term uptrend.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum aligns with the 50-day moving average (~$260–$270), which is above the 200-day MA (~$235–$245), indicating a bullish trend. However, the 100-day MA (~$250–$260) is converging with the 50-day line, suggesting a potential slowdown in acceleration. A crossover of the 50-day below the 100-day MA could signal a bearish shift, while a sustained above-200-day MA position reinforces the long-term uptrend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has shown a recent expansion, with the line crossing above the signal line, confirming short-term bullish momentum. The KDJ oscillator indicates overbought conditions (K > 80, D ~70), suggesting a possible near-term pullback. However, the absence of bearish divergence between price and the KDJ lines (e.g., lower highs in K while price makes higher highs) implies the uptrend may persist. A stochastic crossover below the 50 level would likely trigger profit-taking.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the current price near the upper band (~$307.93), a classic overbought signal. The bands have not shown significant contraction prior to this move, reducing the likelihood of a breakout continuation. A retest of the middle band (~$275–$285) could serve as a critical juncture—if the price holds above this level, the uptrend remains intact; a breakdown may target the lower band (~$240–$250).

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged on the recent rally, with the most recent session’s volume (3.03M shares) exceeding the 30-day average. This validates the strength of the price increase, suggesting institutional participation. However, a divergence in volume (e.g., declining volume on new highs) could foreshadow a reversal, particularly if the RSI fails to sustain above 70.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI has entered overbought territory (~75–80), aligning with the 6.6% three-day gain. While this does not immediately signal a reversal, it highlights the risk of a retracement to the 50–60 range before resuming higher. A sustained close below 50 would invalidate the bullish case, while a failure to break above 80 may indicate waning momentum.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels from the December low (~$215–$220) to the January high (~$308) reveals critical retracement levels at 38.2% (~$265), 50% (~$261), and 61.8% (~$247). The current price (~$308) is near the 0% level, suggesting a potential pullback to test the 38.2% retracement as a key support. A break below the 61.8% level would likely trigger a deeper correction toward the December 2025 lows.

Conclusion

The confluence of bullish momentum indicators (MACD, volume, and moving averages) supports a continuation of the uptrend, but overbought conditions (RSI, KDJ, and Bollinger Bands) highlight a heightened risk of near-term profit-taking. Key watchpoints include the 200-day MA for trend validation, the $288.86 support level, and the RSI’s ability to sustain above 70. Divergences between volume and price or a breakdown of the 50-day MA would significantly increase the probability of a reversal. For now, the bias remains bullish, but with a watchful eye on potential exhaustion signals.