Perspectivas de una reducción de tasas de interés de la Reserva Federal en 2026: puntos estratégicos de entrada para los mercados de acciones y criptomonedas al tiempo que Barclays refina sus pronósticos

The Federal Reserve's 2026 policy trajectory remains a focal point for investors, with Barclays' evolving forecasts offering critical insights into potential entry points for equities and crypto markets. While the bank maintains a baseline expectation of two 25-basis-point rate cuts in March and June 2026, its broader analysis suggests a nuanced interplay between monetary easing, regulatory shifts, and market dynamics that could redefine risk asset allocations.

Equities: Climbing the Wall of Worry with Rate Cuts as Tailwinds

Barclays' 2026 outlook for equities hinges on the Fed's anticipated rate cuts, which the bank views as a catalyst for sustained gains despite macroeconomic headwinds. The bank forecasts three additional rate cuts in 2026, coupled with the end of quantitative tightening, to drive U.S. and EU GDP growth above trend levels. This monetary easing, combined with fiscal stimulus, is expected to support equity markets in "climbing the wall of worry," particularly for cyclicals and banks according to Barclays' analysis.

A key strategic entry point for investors lies in the AI-driven capex cycle, which Barclays identifies as a structural growth driver. The bank recommends an overweight stance on sectors like financials and industrials, with a target of 620 for the SXXP index (a 9% upside from current levels). However, the bank cautions that over-reliance on AI narratives poses risks if adoption slows, underscoring the importance of diversification according to Barclays' analysis.

The timing of rate cuts also plays a pivotal role. Barclays anticipates the first cut in March 2026, which could provide liquidity benefits to equities by reducing borrowing costs and boosting corporate earnings. Historical patterns suggest that equity markets often outperform in the months preceding rate cuts, making early 2026 a potential window for tactical entry.

Crypto: A Subdued Year, but Rate Cuts Could Reignite Retail Demand

Barclays' crypto outlook for 2026 is more cautious, with the bank forecasting a "down-year" marked by declining trading volumes and limited catalysts. Retail-focused platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood face revenue challenges as spot market activity wanes. However, the bank notes that regulatory clarity-particularly the pending CLARITY Act-could provide long-term tailwinds by defining the legal boundaries between digital commodities and securities according to Barclays' analysis.

The Fed's rate cuts, while not a direct driver for crypto, could indirectly benefit the sector. Lower interest rates reduce the appeal of traditional fixed-income assets, potentially redirecting capital toward riskier alternatives like Bitcoin. Barclays highlights that historical data shows increased institutional crypto investment following rate cuts, suggesting that March and June 2026 could see renewed retail participation.

Strategic entry points for crypto investors may emerge in early 2026, particularly if the Fed's March rate cut aligns with softer inflation data. However, Barclays warns that the absence of major catalysts-such as spot Bitcoin ETF approvals or pro-crypto political developments-could limit upside potential. Investors should also monitor the CLARITY Act's progress, as regulatory clarity could unlock institutional demand in the second half of 2026 according to Barclays' analysis.

Navigating Uncertainty: Divergent Views and Macro Risks

While Barclays' forecasts provide a roadmap, divergent views among Fed officials and external risks complicate the outlook. The December 2025 "dot plot" revealed internal divisions, with some policymakers projecting three rate cuts in 2026, as argued by economist Mark Zandi according to CNBC analysis. Conversely, a pessimistic scenario involving rising inflation or a leadership transition under President Donald Trump could delay cuts, creating volatility in both equities and crypto markets according to MEXC analysis.

Investors should also consider the interplay between rate cuts and broader economic data. For example, if employment figures weaken more sharply than expected, the Fed may accelerate cuts, amplifying their impact on risk assets. Conversely, a surge in inflation could force a pause, testing the resilience of equity valuations and crypto prices according to iShares analysis.

Conclusion: Positioning for 2026's Rate Cut Cycle

Barclays' evolving forecasts underscore a strategic inflection point for investors in 2026. For equities, the March and June rate cuts present opportunities to capitalize on reflationary trends, particularly in sectors poised to benefit from lower borrowing costs. In crypto, while the year may be defined by subdued volumes, the potential for retail demand to rebound in early 2026-coupled with regulatory progress-offers a cautious case for selective entry. As the Fed navigates its policy path, investors must remain agile, balancing optimism about rate cuts with vigilance toward macroeconomic risks. The key lies in aligning allocations with Barclays' projected timelines while hedging against divergent outcomes, ensuring portfolios are positioned to thrive in a landscape where monetary easing and regulatory clarity could redefine risk asset dynamics.