Federal Reserve Minutes Highlight Tariff Inflation Risk Bitcoin Surges 2.7%

On July 9, the Federal Reserve released its June minutes, highlighting concerns that tariffs could drive inflation higher for an extended period. While officials agreed to keep the federal funds rate steady, views diverged on future policy moves. Some see the rate close to neutral, while others noted a possible rate cut at the July meeting, assuming economic data stays on track. Most members believe a rate cut is likely later this year, but only if inflationary pressures ease. The minutes emphasize how “tariffs pose a persistent risk for driving up prices,” signaling that the Fed won’t rush to ease until it fully assesses structural inflation drivers.

In parallel, Bitcoin ($BTC/USD) cracked higher after a textbook symmetrical triangle breakout on July 10. Price soared from the $109K zone to a high near $112,000, driven by heavy trading volume and daily gains exceeding 2%. Its market cap now stands firmly around $2.2 trillion, reflecting renewed institutional interest. The breakout tested its measured target, approximately 2.7% above the triangle range, before pulling back, forming a long upper wick that suggests short-term exhaustion. Still, momentum remains clear: the RSI stands at 78, confirming a strong bullish tilt, though overbought pressure suggests a mild pullback could be due.

On the technical front, the level to monitor is $110,550, the old triangle ceiling turned support. A sustained hold would confirm the validity of this breakout. Failure to do so—or a re-entry below $109,850—could trigger a deeper pullback. This is a classic breakout-retest setup on Bitcoin, pairing macro caution with clear technical structure. The trade hinges on whether momentum continues or pauses for a retest.

Scenario 1: Breakout Continuation. Entry: Close above $111,900 on 2H candle. Stop-Loss: Below $110,550. Target 1: $112,824. Target 2: $113,417. A bullish engulfing candle above entry would confirm upside follow-through. Scenario 2: Retest Entry. Entry: Bounce near $110,550 (watch for hammer or morning star). Stop-Loss: Below $109,850. Target 1: $112,000. Target 2: $112,824. Overall, the Bitcoin price prediction remains bullish, while triangle breakouts often retrace for one more bottom test before resuming. If RSI cools while price holds support, that’s often the springboard for the next leg.