¿Son justificadas las reducciones de las tasas de la Fed en un mercado laboral que se relaja en medio de una inflación persistente?

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50%-3.75%, has reignited debates about the balance between supporting a cooling labor market and managing inflation. With the U.S. unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November 2025-the highest in over four years-and annual inflation lingering at 3.1%, the Fed faces a delicate act: stimulating growth without reigniting price pressures. This analysis evaluates the strategic implications of these rate cuts for equities, bonds, and alternative assets, while dissecting the broader impact of a divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on market dynamics.

Labor Market Softness and Inflation: A Tug-of-War

The U.S. labor market has shown signs of moderation, with November 2025 adding 64,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, driven by healthcare and construction sectors. However, the federal government's job losses-6,000 in November alone-highlight structural fragility, compounded by deferred layoffs from a prior government shutdown according to CNBC reports. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings rose 3.5% year-over-year, underscoring wage inflation risks. On the inflation front, the 3.1% annual rate in September 2025, fueled by food prices and tariff-affected goods, suggests core inflation remains stubborn according to inflation data.

The Fed's rate cuts aim to bolster employment while avoiding a sharp slowdown. Yet, the 9-3 split in the December FOMC vote-reflecting both hawkish and dovish dissent-reveals internal divisions over the pace and magnitude of further cuts. This uncertainty has created a "divided Fed" environment, where market participants must navigate conflicting signals about future policy direction.

Market Reactions: Equities, Bonds, and Alternatives in a Divided Fed Environment

The December rate cuts have spurred optimism in equities, with the S&P 500 reaching record highs as investors anticipate lower borrowing costs and improved corporate borrowing conditions. Small-cap stocks, historically sensitive to rate changes, have emerged as a focal point for growth, given their undervalued status and potential to benefit from an easing cycle according to Nuveen analysis. However, the traditional negative correlation between stocks and bonds has weakened, according to BlackRock insights, complicating diversification strategies.

For bonds, the Fed's accommodative stance has improved yields in the short-to-intermediate duration segment (3–7 years), where investors seek attractive coupon income amid limited price appreciation potential due to persistent inflation. Treasury bills, meanwhile, have gained attention as the Fed announced purchases of $40 billion in such securities to stabilize overnight markets according to Federal Reserve press release.

Alternative assets, including real estate and gold, are increasingly viewed as hedges against inflation and diversifiers in a non-recessionary rate-cut cycle. Analysts at J.P. Morgan note that real estate and commodities could outperform if the Fed's easing continues without triggering a liquidity crunch. Digital assets, though volatile, have also attracted speculative capital amid broader market uncertainty.

Portfolio Strategies: Navigating Uncertainty

In a divided Fed environment, portfolio construction must prioritize flexibility and uncorrelated returns. BlackRock recommends allocating to liquid alternatives and international equities to mitigate risks from structural shifts in asset correlations. For fixed income, Schwab's 2026 outlook emphasizes short-to-intermediate duration bonds, which balance yield with reduced sensitivity to rate volatility.

Equity investors should focus on sectors aligned with AI-driven growth and regulatory tailwinds, as highlighted by Lord Abbett's 2026 investment outlook. However, caution is warranted in overvalued tech stocks, as the Fed's neutral stance-emphasized by Chair Jerome Powell-suggests further cuts will depend on incoming data according to ETF Trends analysis.

Conclusion: A Calculated Path Forward

The Fed's rate cuts in late 2025 appear justified by the labor market's softening and inflation's persistence, but the divided FOMC underscores the complexity of balancing these objectives. For investors, the key lies in adapting to a landscape where traditional asset relationships are evolving. By prioritizing flexibility, diversification, and sector-specific opportunities, portfolios can navigate the Fed's cautious approach while capitalizing on emerging trends in equities, bonds, and alternatives.