Cómo la reducción de la tasa del Fed en 2025 está catalizando un nuevo caso alcista para las criptomonedas

The Federal Reserve's 2025 interest rate cuts, coupled with liquidity injections through Treasury purchases and balance-sheet expansion, are reshaping the macroeconomic landscape for cryptocurrencies. While the immediate market reactions have been mixed, a deeper analysis of liquidity dynamics and risk-on investor behavior reveals a compelling case for a renewed bull phase in crypto markets by 2026.

The Fed's 2025 Rate Cuts and Liquidity Expansion

In December 2025, the Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest borrowing costs since 2022. This decision followed similar cuts in September and October, signaling a shift toward accommodative policy amid revised growth forecasts and persistent inflation risks. The Fed also announced a $40 billion monthly Treasury bill purchase program to maintain ample reserves, marking a departure from prior quantitative tightening. These measures have expanded the U.S. M2 money supply to $22.3 trillion, surpassing its 2022 peak, while global M2 growth hit $113 trillion, creating a favorable backdrop for risk assets.

Risk-On Investor Behavior and Crypto Market Dynamics

Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing and incentivize capital to flow into higher-yielding, riskier assets. Historically, cryptocurrencies have thrived in such environments, as evidenced by their strong correlation with liquidity metrics like M2 money supply. Data from 2025 shows that Bitcoin's price typically lags M2 growth by 8–12 weeks, suggesting that the recent liquidity expansion could translate into bullish momentum in early 2026.

However, the December rate cut initially triggered a risk-off sentiment, with Bitcoin and Ethereum falling sharply despite the cut being priced in. This divergence was driven by hawkish messaging from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who emphasized inflation risks, and pre-existing fragility in the crypto market following October's $20 billion liquidation event. Yet, the underlying liquidity tailwinds remain intact. Analysts at Standard Chartered argue that Bitcoin's sensitivity to Fed liquidity signals could resurface as the effects of reserve rebuilding take hold.

Institutional Adoption and ETFs as Catalysts

Institutional adoption and ETF dynamics are further reinforcing the bull case. On-chain data reveals strategic accumulation of Bitcoin, with large holders increasing by 2.1% in December. Meanwhile, ETF inflows, though weakened in late 2025, remain robust year-to-date, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust attracting $25.4 billion in cumulative inflows. Corporate buyers like MicroStrategy and newly listed Twenty One Capital are also deepening institutional participation according to Coinbase research.

The introduction of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 has added new layers to Bitcoin's valuation, with off-chain metrics now playing a critical role in price discovery. While ETF outflows in late 2025 were driven by basis arbitrage collapses, the maturing investor base suggests a shift from speculative trading to long-term positioning.

Looking Ahead: 2026 and Beyond

The Fed's 2026 rate path will be pivotal. With only one projected rate cut expected in 2026, markets are closely watching for a shift from hawkish to dovish policy. A confirmed pivot toward liquidity expansion could reignite risk-on behavior, particularly in crypto markets, which have historically outperformed equities during liquidity booms.

Moreover, regulatory progress and macroeconomic trends position crypto as a store of value for institutional and high-net-worth investors. While short-term volatility persists, the structural factors underpinning Bitcoin's bull case-expansive liquidity, institutional adoption, and ETF-driven demand-remain intact.

Conclusion

The Fed's 2025 rate cuts and liquidity measures are laying the groundwork for a new bull phase in cryptocurrencies. While near-term market reactions have been mixed, the long-term alignment between macroeconomic liquidity and risk-on investor behavior suggests that Bitcoin and other cryptos could enter a sustained uptrend in 2026. Investors should monitor the Fed's balance-sheet strategy, institutional activity, and global liquidity trends as key catalysts for the next leg of the crypto cycle.