Fed's PCE Stasis Delays Rate Cuts, Bitcoin's Path Remains Uncertain
The U.S. core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, remained at 2.9% year-over-year in August 2025, consistent with the previous month and market forecasts[1]. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported the unchanged reading, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures despite earlier expectations of a moderation[2]. The core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, has been a focal point for policymakers as it aligns with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. The stability of this indicator has reinforced expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain its current monetary policy stance, with no immediate rate adjustments anticipated[3].
The Federal Reserve’s continued focus on the core PCE highlights its role in shaping monetary strategy. Analysts note that the 2.9% figure, while above the 2% target, reflects a moderation from earlier peaks, suggesting that inflationary pressures are stabilizing[1]. The FOMC has projected a further decline in core PCE inflation into 2026-2027, aligning with broader economic forecasts of cooling price pressures[3]. This trajectory has alleviated concerns about aggressive rate hikes, with markets pricing in a 75.5% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in October 2025, up from 70% the previous day[3]. The Fed’s policy pivot toward rate easing, supported by the core PCE data, has bolstered risk-on sentiment across asset classes.
Financial markets reacted cautiously to the release, with limited volatility observed in traditional indices and currency markets[1]. The dollar index and major stock benchmarks showed modest movements, reflecting the in-line nature of the data with expectations. In the cryptocurrency sector, BitcoinBTC-- (BTC) and EthereumETH-- (ETH) experienced muted price fluctuations, with BTCBTC-- trading at $109,717.67 as of September 26, 2025[2]. Historical patterns indicate that stable PCE readings typically support crypto markets by reinforcing expectations of accommodative monetary policy, which benefits risk assets[2]. However, recent macroeconomic factors, including robust jobs data and GDP growth, have introduced short-term headwinds, leading to $1.5 billion in Bitcoin liquidations and a 4% decline in BTC prices[3].
The broader PCE index, which includes food and energy, rose 2.7% year-over-year in August 2025, up from 2.6% in July[3]. This suggests that while headline inflation is easing, core components remain resilient. The divergence between core and headline PCE underscores the Fed’s focus on underlying inflation trends, which are less susceptible to temporary shocks. Analysts at Bull Theory, a crypto research firm, emphasized that the in-line PCE data validates the Fed’s dovish trajectory, supporting arguments for a continued rate-cutting cycle[3]. The firm noted that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies could benefit from this environment, particularly if liquidity conditions improve and geopolitical risks subside.
Market participants are closely monitoring the interplay between inflation data and asset performance. Bitcoin’s technical outlook remains mixed, with analysts highlighting a critical support level of $107,200. A breakdown below this threshold could trigger further declines toward $100,000 or even $93,000[3]. Conversely, a sustained rebound above $113,000 could reinvigorate bullish momentum. The PCE data, while stabilizing, has not yet resolved macroeconomic uncertainties, with traders balancing optimism over Fed easing against concerns about global growth and supply-side disruptions[3]. Institutional investors have adopted a cautious stance, prioritizing portfolio diversification and hedging strategies as they await clearer signals on the inflation path.
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