Fed: A few officials could have supported no rate cut in September.

Fed: A few officials could have supported no rate cut in September.

In a flurry of statements, Federal Reserve officials have provided significant insights into their monetary policy stance. The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of crucial economic data, adding uncertainty to the Fed's policy path. However, several officials have indicated that the Federal Reserve might not have supported a rate cut in September.

On October 3, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran downplayed the risk of tariffs driving up inflation, while President of the Chicago Fed, Aubhik Goolsbee, estimated the September unemployment rate at 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market. Goolsbee expressed caution against 'front-loaded' interest rate cuts, suggesting that the Fed might maintain a gradual and cautious pace of rate cuts .

Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Richard Jefferson, warned of dual challenges: a cooling labor market and rising inflationary pressures. He noted that recent data shows U.S. economic growth is slowing, with employment growth decelerating and the number of net immigrants plummeting. Despite these challenges, Jefferson did not provide clear guidance on future policy positions .

The Federal Reserve's latest statements suggest that the Fed might not have supported a rate cut in September. Miran acknowledged that his benign forecast for inflation could need revision if housing costs unexpectedly rise. He also noted that stricter immigration policies and trends in average rental costs could suppress housing inflation .

The U.S. government shutdown has added uncertainty to the Fed's monetary policy path. The non-farm payroll report for September was not released due to the shutdown, and analysts warn that the absence of key economic data could add uncertainty to the Fed's policy decisions .

In summary, Federal Reserve officials' statements suggest that the Fed might not have supported a rate cut in September. The shutdown has added uncertainty to the policy path, but the Fed's stance remains cautious and gradual. The next monetary policy meetings are scheduled for October 28-29 and December 9-10, where officials will discuss further interest rate cuts.