Reunión del Fed hoy: los principales puntos a tener en cuenta para los inversores y lo que se espera a continuación

The Federal Reserve is set to deliver a rate cut on December 10, 2025—its third consecutive reduction in 2025—marking a pivotal moment for investors, businesses, and the broader economy. With the S&P 500 hovering near a flat line and markets pricing in an 87–88% chance of a 25-basis-point cut, the outcome will likely influence stock prices, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar's strength. This decision comes amid a backdrop of divided policymakers and economic uncertainty, making it one of the most closely watched moves of the year.

Core facts: The rate cut, timing, and policy stance

The Fed is expected to reduce the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points, . The decision will be announced at 2:00 p.m. EST, followed by a press conference with Fed Chair 30 minutes later according to Reuters. Alongside the rate cut, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release updated economic projections, including the so-called '' that shows individual officials' forecasts for future rate movements as reported by CNBC.

Crucially, this rate cut is expected to be '' in tone. That means while the rate will drop slightly, the Fed may signal a pause in further cuts for now, requiring stronger evidence of economic weakness before another move.

This cautious approach reflects internal divisions among policymakers, with some favoring more aggressive cuts to support the labor market and others concerned about inflation remaining above the 2% target.

What's driving the decision: Economic data and internal FOMC divisions

The Fed has been navigating a difficult balancing act. On one hand, the labor market is showing signs of strain— and a rising unemployment rate are fueling concerns about a slowdown. On the other, inflation, while slowing, remains elevated, .

Complicating matters further are gaps in economic data caused by a recent government shutdown. This has led to delayed reports on key metrics like November's employment and inflation figures, making it harder for policymakers to assess the full picture. Some officials, like Fed Governor , have dissented at previous meetings, advocating for larger cuts or no cuts at all. With no FOMC meeting since July passing unanimously, the tension between those favoring rate cuts and those favoring restraint is palpable.

What investors should watch for: The aftermath and forward-looking signals

Investors should closely watch how the market reacts immediately after the 2 p.m. ET announcement. A hawkish cut—where the Fed lowers rates but signals it won't cut further unless conditions worsen—could support the U.S. dollar and limit a stock rally. Meanwhile, the updated economic projections and Powell's press conference will offer critical clues about the Fed's outlook for 2026. Most officials currently expect only one additional rate cut in the next year, pushing the federal funds rate to the 3.25%-3.5% range by the end of 2026.

Equally important is the political context. President is expected to soon announce his nominee to succeed Powell as Fed chair, adding another layer of uncertainty to the central bank's future stance. Powell's tenure is nearing its end, and the next leader could shape the Fed's approach to inflation, employment, and financial stability in ways that differ from the current path.

Conclusion: How this rate cut fits into the broader economic picture

This 2025 rate cut is not just a technical move—it's a sign of broader economic and policy challenges. The Fed is walking a tightrope between supporting a fragile labor market and keeping inflation in check. For investors, the key takeaway is to prepare for a period of limited monetary stimulus. Markets that have grown accustomed to a steady diet of rate cuts may need to adjust to a more cautious Fed stance in the months ahead. While the immediate impact of today's decision could provide short-term relief, the long-term direction remains uncertain, shaped by both economic data and political decisions that will unfold in the coming weeks.