El cambio de opinión en favor de la flexibilización de la Fed y sus consecuencias sectoriales para 2026

The Federal Reserve's recent policy shifts signal a pivotal turn toward accommodative monetary policy, with significant implications for capital-intensive sectors in 2026. After months of internal debate, the November 2025 meeting minutes revealed a deeply divided Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), with dovish officials advocating for rate cuts to support a weakening labor market and hawkish members cautioning against inflationary risks. This divergence culminated in a projected 100 basis points of rate cuts in 2026, bringing the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75% by December. Such a dovish pivot, coupled with an upgraded GDP forecast of 1.6% for 2025, sets the stage for a reinvigoration of growth sectors that thrive on low borrowing costs and long-term capital deployment.

Capital-Intensive Sectors: The Primary Beneficiaries

The Fed's easing of monetary policy is expected to disproportionately benefit industries requiring substantial investment, such as artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductors, and renewable energy. According to a report by Fidelity, the anticipated rate cuts will reduce financing costs, accelerating capital expenditures in these sectors. For instance, the AI industry, which demands massive infrastructure spending for data centers and high-performance computing, is poised to see a surge in demand as global firms scale their operations. Similarly, the semiconductor sector, a critical enabler of AI and advanced manufacturing, will benefit from lower interest rates that make long-term R&D and production investments more attractive.

Infrastructure and energy projects, which require multiyear funding commitments, are also likely to gain momentum. The U.S. government's push for green energy transitions and grid modernization aligns with the Fed's accommodative stance, creating a favorable environment for companies involved in power generation and transmission. This is particularly relevant for heavy electrical equipment manufacturers, such as producers of large gas turbines, which will see increased demand to meet surging energy needs.

Copper: The Overlooked Commodity in a Dovish World

One of the most compelling investment opportunities lies in the materials sector, particularly copper. Global demand for copper is projected to rise by 24% to nearly 43 million metric tons (Mtpa) by 2035, driven by renewable energy projects, data center expansion, and industrialization in Southeast Asia and India. However, supply constraints are exacerbating a structural deficit. According to the International Energy Agency, clean-energy technologies alone could push refined copper use to 33 million tons by 2035. J.P. Morgan forecasts a global refined copper deficit of 330,000 metric tons in 2026, with prices averaging $12,075 per ton and peaking at $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026.

The imbalance between demand and supply is further compounded by sluggish mine production growth. Western miners are hesitant to invest in new projects due to high capital costs and ESG constraints, while Chinese companies are stepping in to fill gaps, albeit in higher-risk jurisdictions. This dynamic has already driven copper prices to record highs of $11,771 per ton in early December 2025, signaling a sustained bull market for the metal.

Risks and Challenges

While the Fed's dovish pivot creates tailwinds for capital-intensive sectors, investors must remain cautious. Political pressures, particularly from the White House, could lead to aggressive rate cuts that trigger a short-term economic "sugar rush," followed by a rapid slowdown. Additionally, the influx of liquidity may reignite inflationary pressures if expectations of overheating take hold. For copper, supply chain bottlenecks and geopolitical risks-such as mine disruptions in Chile or regulatory hurdles in China-could further tighten markets.

Conclusion: High-Conviction Opportunities

The Fed's 2026 rate cuts present a unique window for investors to capitalize on sectors that thrive under accommodative monetary policy. AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and copper are particularly well-positioned to benefit, given their reliance on long-term capital and their alignment with macroeconomic trends. However, success will depend on balancing growth potential with macroeconomic risks. As the Fed navigates its delicate balancing act between inflation control and economic support, these sectors offer compelling opportunities for those willing to bet on the next phase of the cycle.