El cambio de opinión de la Fed hacia la monetización y sus implicaciones para la rotación de sectores en 2026

The 's dovish pivot in late 2025, marked by a series of rate cuts to address a softening labor market and economic slowdown, has set the stage for a low-interest-rate environment in 2026. , investors are recalibrating their strategies to capitalize on sectors poised to outperform in this new regime. Historical patterns during prior , combined with expert projections for 2026, highlight specific opportunities in equities, fixed income, and industrial commodities.

Equity Markets: Tech, Consumer Discretionary, and Lead

The Fed's rate cuts in 2025 already spurred gains in equity markets, hitting record highs as investors flocked to growth-oriented sectors like technology and consumer discretionary.

This trend is expected to continue in 2026, particularly in AI-driven infrastructure and energy-intensive industries. Fidelity highlights power generation and industrial sectors tied to AI data centers as key opportunities, driven by surging demand for computing power and renewable energy. Similarly, PIMCO notes that value-oriented equities, historically undervalued during rate-cutting cycles, may experience mean reversion if the Fed continues its easing path.

Real estate and consumer discretionary sectors, which benefited from lower borrowing costs in 2025, are also expected to outperform. Lower rates reduce mortgage costs, boosting housing demand and retail spending, a dynamic observed in past cycles. However, financials remain a cautionary tale, as compressed net interest margins from rate cuts could weigh on profitability.

Fixed Income: Quality and Duration Matter

While equities have thrived, the bond market has shown mixed signals. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose in 2025 despite rate cuts, reflecting persistent inflation and fiscal deficits. For 2026, PIMCO recommends a strategic shift toward high-quality fixed-income assets, particularly intermediate-duration bonds, to lock in yields before they erode further. This aligns with historical trends where investors favor shorter-duration instruments during rate-cutting cycles to mitigate inflation risks.

Goldman Sachs projects two additional rate cuts in 2026, . If realized, this would create a favorable environment for corporate and high-yield bonds, which offer higher yields compared to cash and Treasuries. However, investors must remain cautious about credit risk, as economic instability could amplify defaults in lower-quality segments.

: Copper and AI Infrastructure

The materials sector, particularly , is gaining attention as a long-term play. Fidelity notes that industrial commodities are underpinned by demand from renewable energy projects and AI infrastructure, which require significant copper for data centers and grid modernization. This aligns with historical sector rotations during Fed easing cycles, where industrial and materials sectors outperformed due to their sensitivity to economic growth.

Risks and Sector Rotation Dynamics

Despite the optimism, 2026's investment landscape is not without risks. pattern, where certain sectors (e.g., AI and energy) thrive while others (e.g., ) struggle, could persist due to tariffs and labor market fragmentation. Additionally, inflation, though expected to cool, , remains sticky, complicating the Fed's rate-cutting trajectory. Investors must also monitor the Fed's cautious stance, as dissenting votes in December 2025 highlighted internal divisions over the pace of easing.

Conclusion: Strategic Allocation for 2026

The Fed's dovish pivot has created a fertile ground for sector rotation in 2026. High-conviction opportunities lie in AI-driven infrastructure, , and , while industrial commodities like copper offer long-term potential. However, a diversified approach that balances growth and income strategies-leveraging both equities and fixed-income assets-will be critical to navigating macroeconomic uncertainties. As the Fed's rate-cutting cycle unfolds, investors must remain agile, aligning their portfolios with the evolving interplay of monetary policy and sector-specific fundamentals.