La semana decisiva de la Fed: ¿justificarán la reducción de tasas el trabajo, la inflación y los mercados de bonos?

The Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2025 has become a focal point for investors, policymakers, and economists alike. With the U.S. economy navigating a fragile balance between growth and inflation, the Fed faces a critical decision: to cut interest rates further or hold steady amid mixed signals from labor markets, inflation data, and bond markets. This analysis examines the evidence underpinning the Fed's potential rate cut, the risks of a policy pivot, and the volatility it could trigger in financial markets.

Labor Market: Stability Amid Structural Shifts

The September 2025 labor market report revealed a modest gain of 119,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. While this suggests a resilient labor market, the data also highlights structural shifts: job gains in healthcare and food services contrasted with losses in transportation, warehousing, and federal government sectors. These divergences signal a labor market that is neither overheating nor collapsing but is instead recalibrating to evolving economic demands.

The pending November labor report, scheduled for December 16 according to the BLS, could provide further clarity. However, the current data already underscores a key challenge for the Fed: maintaining employment stability while addressing sector-specific vulnerabilities. If the November report confirms a slowdown in hiring or a rise in unemployment, it could strengthen the case for a rate cut. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report might delay further easing.

Inflation: A Persistent, but Moderate, Headache

Inflation remains a central concern for the Fed. As of September 2025, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, with a 3.0% annual increase. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred gauge, stood at 2.8% annually. A nowcasting model from the Cleveland Fed estimates November's PCE inflation at 2.99%, suggesting a marginal uptick.

These figures indicate that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target but is trending toward moderation. The October 2025 FOMC statement cited "rising inflation" as a key factor in its 25-basis-point rate cut. However, the Fed's dual mandate-balancing price stability and maximum employment-means it must weigh inflationary pressures against labor market risks. If November's inflation data shows a sustained slowdown, the case for further cuts weakens. Conversely, a rebound in inflation could force the Fed to prioritize price stability over growth.

Bond Markets: A Barometer of Uncertainty

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.141% as of December 8, 2025. This stability contrasts with expectations of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, as reflected in the CME FedWatch tool (87% probability of a cut). The disconnect between bond yields and rate-cut expectations highlights a key tension: investors are pricing in a policy pivot but remain cautious about economic fundamentals.

The Fed's "ample reserves" framework, which ensures sufficient liquidity to manage short-term interest rates, has helped stabilize markets. However, the central bank's recent rate cuts and dovish rhetoric have raised concerns about policy credibility. As noted by New York Fed President John Williams, the Fed is using rate cuts as "insurance against economic uncertainty." This approach, while prudent, risks creating a cycle of dependency on accommodative policy, particularly if inflationary pressures resurface.

Policy Pivot Risks and Market Volatility

The Fed's October rate cut was not unanimous, with dissenting votes from Stephen I. Miran (favoring a 50-basis-point cut) and Jeffrey R. Schmid (opposing any cut). This internal division is expected to persist into 2026, exacerbated by growing political pressures. The Trump administration's push for lower rates, coupled with the potential politicization of the Fed's leadership, raises concerns about the central bank's independence.

The November 2025 Financial Stability Report underscores additional risks, including excessive household and business borrowing, leverage in the financial sector, and valuation pressures. These vulnerabilities could amplify market volatility if the Fed's policy pivot is perceived as inadequate to address them. Meanwhile, the Beige Book highlights a mixed economic outlook: while manufacturing and professional services show resilience, consumer spending on big-ticket items has declined. Such divergences complicate the Fed's task of calibrating policy.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act

The Fed's December meeting will test its ability to navigate a complex economic landscape. Labor market stability, moderate inflation, and cautious bond markets suggest a case for a rate cut, but structural shifts, political pressures, and financial vulnerabilities introduce significant risks. Investors must brace for a period of policy discord, where the Fed's actions may be influenced as much by external pressures as by economic data.

In this environment, prudence is key. A 25-basis-point cut in December is likely, but the path beyond 2025 remains uncertain. Markets will need to price in the possibility of further volatility, particularly if the Fed's independence is challenged or inflationary pressures resurface. For now, the Fed's decisive week will hinge on its ability to balance short-term risks with long-term stability-a task that demands both courage and clarity.