La reducción de la tasa de la Fed en diciembre y sus implicaciones en 2026

The Federal Reserve's December 2025 decision to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 3.50%-3.75%
according to the Federal Reserve, marks a pivotal shift in monetary policy. This move, driven by a slowing labor market and persistent inflation, has set the stage for a recalibration of global financial strategies. As investors and institutions grapple with the implications, the focus turns to how to reallocate assets and manage risks in a post-rate-cut environment.

Strategic Asset Reallocation: Balancing Opportunity and Caution

The Fed's easing cycle has already begun to reshape market dynamics. Lower borrowing costs are expected to fuel demand for risk assets, with equities and cryptocurrencies emerging as key beneficiaries. Bitcoin, for instance,
surged toward $95,000 in the wake of the rate cut, as investors priced in improved liquidity and reduced discount rates for future cash flows. Similarly,
small-cap stocks and high-growth equities are likely to gain traction, as lower rates reduce the cost of capital for smaller firms and startups.

However, the Fed's forward guidance-projecting one additional rate cut in 2026, while traders anticipate two-introduces uncertainty. This divergence underscores the need for a nuanced approach to asset allocation.
According to Fidelity's quarterly update, investors should prioritize diversification, particularly in inflation-protected assets like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and commodities. These instruments can act as buffers against the lingering risks of elevated inflation and fiscal imbalances, which
remain embedded in the global economy.

The Fed's December decision also highlights the importance of liquidity management. With the central bank signaling a more accommodative stance, investors may find value in extending durations in fixed-income portfolios to capture higher yields. At the same time, the Fed's reserve management purchases-designed to maintain ample liquidity through seasonal periods-could further support risk-on sentiment
according to Scotiabank's economic indicators.

Risk Management: Navigating a Fragile Macro Landscape

While the rate cut offers tailwinds for growth-oriented assets, it also exposes vulnerabilities.
The Fed's internal dissent-two members voting hawkishly and one advocating for a larger cut-reflects divergent views on the trajectory of inflation and employment. This fragmentation suggests that future policy adjustments may be contingent on volatile data points, such as
the November and December jobs reports.

To mitigate these risks, financial institutions must adopt robust risk management frameworks.
According to the Federal Reserve's proposed scenarios, which incorporate enhanced models for unemployment and housing price declines, provide a blueprint for assessing resilience in a potential recession. These scenarios emphasize the need for banks to maintain capital buffers and adapt to regulatory shifts, including heightened scrutiny of AI governance and digital asset oversight.

Moreover, global fiscal policy is becoming a critical variable.
As Citi notes, supportive fiscal measures in key economies are creating a favorable backdrop for cyclical assets tied to natural resources. However, rising government debt and deficits could limit the Fed's flexibility in responding to future shocks, necessitating a cautious approach to leverage and exposure.

Conclusion: A Delicate Balancing Act

The Fed's December rate cut is a signal of both optimism and caution. While it opens the door for a more accommodative monetary environment, it also underscores the fragility of the current economic expansion. For investors, the challenge lies in aligning strategic asset allocation with the dual imperatives of growth and risk mitigation. Diversification, liquidity management, and a close watch on macroeconomic indicators will be essential in navigating the uncertainties of 2026.

As the Fed's policy trajectory unfolds, one thing is clear: the markets are already pricing in a future where rate cuts continue to play a central role. The question now is whether investors can adapt quickly enough to capitalize on the opportunities-and avoid the pitfalls-that lie ahead.