Fair Isaac Drops 2.95% as Technicals Show Persistent Bearish Momentum

Fair Isaac concluded its latest session with a 2.95% decline, closing at $1344.11. Technical analysis of the 1-year dataset reveals persistent bearish momentum across multiple frameworks, with limited evidence of reversal signals.
Candlestick Theory
The recent candle formation exhibits a decisive bearish engulfing pattern, with the August 20 candle (high: $1401.79, low: $1335) completely overwhelming the prior session's body. This signifies rejection at the $1400 resistance zone, which has capped price advances three times since early August. Support manifests near $1300, established by the August 14 low, while $1500 serves as intermediate resistance. The series of long upper wicks near $1400 reflects persistent distribution pressure.
Moving Average Theory
All key moving averages maintain bearish sequencing: the 50-day SMA (approximately $1540) trends below the 100-day SMA ($1680), which in turn resides under the 200-day SMA ($1830). The current price trades 15% below the 50-day average, confirming the entrenched downtrend. This configuration signals sustained technical weakness, with no imminent golden cross indications.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) lingers in negative territory, with the signal line maintaining a consistent 3-point gap below the histogram—indicating bearish momentum continuity. The KDJ (9,3,3) oscillates near oversold territory but without divergence signals. Recent readings near K=25/D=30 reflect downside momentum dominance, though they may precede minor tactical rebounds in the absence of trend reversal catalysts.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band ($1360 ± 2σ) on August 20, coinciding with elevated 480k volume—a volatility expansion signal. However, consecutive closes beneath the lower band occurred just once in the past month, suggesting potential near-term consolidation. The bandwidth expansion from 4% to 6% over five sessions confirms accelerating bearish momentum.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution manifests clearly through higher volume on down days (e.g., 481k shares on August 20's 2.95% drop) versus reduced participation during recoveries (365k shares on August 19's 2.58% gain). The July 8 climax volume (1.37M shares) established a distribution peak at $1700, which now serves as major resistance. Current volume profiles validate bearish conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI reads 30.2, formally entering oversold territory. However, this occurs within a macro downtrend where previous oversold bounces since May 2025 consistently failed to surpass 55 on the RSI scale. Such context diminishes reversal implications, suggesting the indicator may remain depressed before significant basing develops.
Fibonacci Retracement
Measuring from the November 2024 peak ($2400) to the August 2025 trough ($1300), critical retracement levels emerge: 23.6% ($1559), 38.2% ($1720), and 50% ($1850). The repeated failure to breach the 23.6% level during August rallies confirms its resistance significance. A sustained break above $1560 becomes necessary to invalidate the primary bearish structure.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluence appears strongest in the $1380-$1400 resistance zone, where Bollinger Band midlines align with multi-week highs and bearish candlestick patterns. Conversely, minor positive divergence exists as RSI prints marginally higher lows against price’s August 14-20 descent ($1335 vs $1300). However, this lacks confirmation from MACD or KDJ oscillators, limiting its reliability. Overall, the technical structure favors continued bearishness. A close below $1300 would intensify selling pressure, while recovery above $1420—supported by volume expansion—would signal potential trend reversal.