ExxonMobil’s Guyana Production Surge to 940K BPD Fuels 0.44 Rally $1.45B Volume Ranks 47th

ExxonMobil (XOM) edged up 0.44% on September 4, 2025, with a trading volume of $1.45 billion, ranking 47th in market activity. The move followed developments in Guyana, where the re-elected People’s Progressive Party (PPP) pledged to accelerate oil production through its partnership with the Exxon-led consortium. The PPP, which secured eight of 10 electoral districts, has overseen a surge in Guyana’s crude output from 1,200 barrels per day in 2019 to 650,000 barrels per day, with a fourth project set to boost capacity to 940,000 barrels per day by year-end. The government and ExxonMobil anticipate doubling production by 2027 through the Stabroek block, which holds an estimated 11 billion barrels of reserves.

The PPP’s agenda includes advancing a $2 billion gas-to-energy initiative, featuring a 200km pipeline completed by ExxonMobil to supply offshore gas to a 300MW power plant. Plans to expand the project by an additional 300MW aim to address Guyana’s energy grid constraints and support economic growth. Meanwhile, the government seeks to finalize production-sharing contracts with ExxonMobil and TotalEnergies to fast-track new developments. However, the expansion faces geopolitical risks, as Venezuela’s claim to the Essequibo province—a region critical to the Stabroek block—remains unresolved. The International Court of Justice is expected to deliver a binding ruling by mid-2026, which could impact future operations.

ExxonMobil’s recent operational progress in Guyana includes the startup of the Yellowtail project, which added 250,000 barrels per day of production and pushed total installed capacity above 900,000 barrels per day. The company also announced the relinquishment of 20% of the Stabroek Block, reflecting ongoing portfolio optimization. Despite these strides, the company’s long-term strategy hinges on securing regulatory clarity and maintaining stable relations with the Guyanese government. Domestic political continuity under the PPP provides a favorable environment for sustained investment, though external uncertainties such as the Venezuela dispute remain a wildcard.

Backtest results indicate that ExxonMobil’s stock has historically outperformed during periods of strong production growth and geopolitical stability in key markets. The firm’s ability to execute projects ahead of schedule, as seen with Yellowtail, has historically correlated with positive equity performance. However, external shocks such as regulatory delays or geopolitical tensions have led to volatility, underscoring the need for continued operational efficiency and stakeholder alignment in Guyana.