El crecimiento explosivo y la institucionalización de los mercados de predicción: una nueva frontera para la innovación financiera

Prediction markets are no longer niche curiosities-they are emerging as a foundational layer of financial infrastructure. In 2025, the sector is witnessing a seismic shift as regulated platforms like Kalshi and decentralized alternatives like Polymarket redefine how markets price uncertainty. This article explores the strategic investment case for regulated prediction market infrastructure, focusing on Kalshi's institutional-grade edge and the contrasting decentralized growth of Polymarket.

Regulated Infrastructure: Kalshi's CFTC-Backed Edge

Kalshi, the first federally regulated prediction market in the U.S., has positioned itself as a bridge between speculative betting and institutional-grade financial tools. Its CFTC-regulated framework ensures compliance with federal commodity laws, a critical differentiator in attracting institutional capital. By leveraging CF Benchmarks' Real-Time Indices (RTIs), Kalshi standardizes binary payoffs for crypto event contracts, transforming market probabilities into auditable datasets. These RTIs employ trimming and averaging techniques to mitigate manipulation risks, aligning with institutional risk management requirements according to CF Benchmarks.

Kalshi's notional volume surge underscores its growing influence. As of mid-October 2025, the platform had processed $7.5 billion in notional trading volume since launch, with projections of $30 billion in annual notional volume by 2025 according to market analysis. This growth is fueled by institutional adoption, evidenced by its $1 billion Series E funding round at an $11 billion valuation, led by top-tier firms.

Kalshi's product ecosystem now includes over 3,500 weekly markets, spanning elections, sports, and macroeconomic events as reported in industry analysis.

Institutional Adoption: From Retail to Enterprise

Kalshi's regulated status has unlocked partnerships with major financial players, including Robinhood and Coinbase, while its integration with CME futures and U.S. spot crypto ETFs via CF Benchmarks RTIs further validates its infrastructure-grade benchmarks according to industry reports. The platform's ability to predict outcomes in real time-such as the NYC mayoral election-has positioned it as a trusted data source for institutional clients as confirmed by financial analysis.

In contrast, Polymarket's decentralized model has driven explosive retail growth but lacks the same institutional credibility. While Polymarket captured 99% of the prediction market share in Q3 2024, its growth was fueled by retail speculation, particularly around the U.S. presidential election, where $1.7 billion was wagered on the "US Presidential Election Winner" market according to market research. However, its decentralized nature introduces regulatory ambiguity, limiting its appeal to institutional investors.

Decentralized Growth vs. Regulated Infrastructure

Polymarket's Q3 2024 performance highlights the power of decentralized platforms to democratize access. The platform added 140,000 new accounts in October 2024 alone, with betting volume surging by 713.2% and transactions increasing by 848.5% according to research data. Yet, its reliance on the Polygon PoS network and lack of CFTC oversight create structural limitations. For instance, while Polymarket's $1.1 million trading volume on Apple AI contracts demonstrates its utility, it cannot match Kalshi's institutional-grade benchmarks or regulatory alignment as noted in industry analysis.

Kalshi's regulated infrastructure, meanwhile, is designed for scalability. Its $50 million daily average notional volume and partnerships with brokerage platforms signal a transition from speculative retail activity to enterprise-grade financial tools according to market reports. This positions Kalshi to capitalize on AI prediction markets, where institutions increasingly seek to hedge risks related to cloud infrastructure, regulatory shifts, and macroeconomic trends as highlighted in financial analysis.

Regulatory Tailwinds and Long-Term Value Creation

The CFTC's oversight of Kalshi creates a "regulatory moat," shielding it from the volatility of unregulated competitors. As prediction markets evolve into first-class financial datasets, their integration with traditional derivatives and ETFs will drive long-term value creation according to industry experts. Kalshi's roadmap-expanding to 100 million users, enhancing brokerage integrations, and broadening product offerings-reflects a strategic vision to dominate this emerging asset class as detailed in company filings.

For investors, the contrast between Kalshi and Polymarket is stark. While Polymarket's decentralized growth is impressive, its lack of regulatory clarity and institutional-grade benchmarks limits its ceiling. Kalshi, by contrast, is building a regulated, interoperable infrastructure that aligns with the needs of institutional clients, AI-driven analytics, and global financial markets as confirmed by financial analysts.

Conclusion: A Strategic Investment in the Future of Finance

Prediction markets are no longer speculative-they are a critical infrastructure layer for pricing uncertainty in the digital age. Kalshi's CFTC-regulated edge, institutional-grade benchmarks, and $30B+ notional volume projection position it as a cornerstone of this evolution. While decentralized platforms like Polymarket will continue to drive retail adoption, the long-term value lies in regulated infrastructure that bridges speculative markets with institutional finance. For investors, the opportunity is clear: bet on the rails, not just the train.