Expand Energy Plunges 8.5% to $99.41 Amid Technical Breakdown

Expand Energy (EXE) concluded the most recent session with a significant decline of 8.50%, settling at $99.41 on elevated volume of 6.03 million shares. This abrupt bearish momentum breach multiple technical thresholds, warranting a multi-indicator assessment of the current technical posture.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals a decisive bearish engulfing pattern formed between July 18th ($108.64 close) and July 21st ($99.41 close), where the latter’s expansive bearish body completely overwhelmed the prior session’s gains. The $98.58 intraday low established on July 21st now serves as immediate support, while resistance emerges near $107.53 (July 21st high) and $110.38 (July 14th peak). The absence of reversal patterns like hammers or piercing lines suggests continued bearish dominance.
Moving Average Theory
Critical moving averages exhibit a bearish alignment consistent with a deteriorating trend structure. The 50-day SMA (approximately $108.50) crossed below the 100-day SMA ($112.20) in early July, while both remain decisively above the 200-day SMA ($103.80). July 21st’s close at $99.41 now positions price below all three key averages – particularly significant as this is the first sub-200-day SMA close since April. The descending SMAs reinforce a negative medium-term bias, though the 200-day SMA may offer psychological support near $103.80.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram shows sustained negative territory since mid-June, with the signal line hovering near -3.5, reflecting persistent bearish momentum. Concurrently, KDJ oscillators demonstrate oversold conditions – K-value at 18 and D-value at 22.5 – though neither exhibits bullish divergence as both continue descending. This alignment suggests oversold readings remain subordinate to dominant downward pressure, with any reversal requiring confirmation from MACD convergence.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands are expanding notably after July’s volatility surge, with the 20-day standard deviation widening to 4.8%. The July 21st close near $99.41 positions price at the lower band edge (approximately $98.50), typically signaling oversold conditions. However, consecutive lower-band touches without reversal patterns reduce the reliability of this signal. The breach of the 20-day moving average (now resistance near $108) indicates bearish control.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume patterns validate bearish momentum sustainability. The July 21st selloff occurred on 6.03M shares – 167% above the 30-day average volume – confirming conviction behind the breakdown. Up-volume remained subdued during July’s failed rebound attempts, while distribution days (higher volume on declines) outnumbered accumulation, particularly near $118 resistance in late June. This volume signature reinforces structural weakness.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI plunged to 28 after the recent selloff, entering oversold territory below the 30 threshold. While historically such readings precede bounces, the indicator’s downward trajectory since the June overbought peak (RSI: 76) shows no divergence. This lack of bullish divergence diminishes the predictive value of the oversold signal in isolation.
Fibonacci Retracement
The Fibonacci grid drawn from the June 24th peak of $123.29 to the July 21st low of $98.58 reveals critical levels: the 23.6% retracement aligns with $104.50 resistance (near July 18th highs), while the 38.2% level converges with the 100-day SMA at $108.60. The 61.8% resistance overlaps with the 50-day SMA at $113.60. Current price sits below all retracement levels, with the 23.6% threshold now serving as immediate technical resistance.
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Notable confluence appears at the $103.80 zone where the 200-day SMA, April swing highs, and psychological $100 support intersect, suggesting potential stabilization if tested. However, bearish consensus dominates currently, with oversold oscillators (KDJ/RSI) failing to counter corroborated breakdowns in moving averages, volume, and candlestick structures. The primary divergence lies between oversold oscillators and ongoing price deterioration – a condition that typically resolves through either sharp reversals or consolidation before continuation. Given volume confirmation of the breakdown and absence of reversal patterns, near-term downside bias persists with high-probability support near $98.50-$100. A sustained close above $104.50 (23.6% Fib + July 18th high) would be necessary to suggest technical stabilization.