Expand Energy's Sudden 8.8% Intraday Plunge: What's Fueling the Freefall?

Summary
• Expand Energy (EXE) plunges 8.8% intraday to $99.06, breaking below Bollinger Band support.
• Options gamma shock triggers 170k shares turnover in 100-strike puts as volatility spikes.
• RSI hits 26.52 (oversold), while 52-week low looms just 3% away at $69.12.

Expand Energy's dramatic intraday selloff has ignited a volatility spike, with the stock trading near its 52-week low and triggering a surge in options activity. The 100-strike put options alone saw 5714 contracts traded, signaling aggressive hedging by institutional players. With RSI in oversold territory and the 50-day MA at $114.14 acting as resistance, the stock faces a critical juncture ahead of the August 15 expiration cycle.

Options Gamma Shock and Earnings Gap Trigger Sell-Off
The 8.8% intraday plunge in Expand Energy coincided with a $6.51 gap down in pre-market trading, likely triggered by earnings-related short covering and algorithmic selling. The 100-strike put options saw 5714 contracts traded, indicating aggressive hedging by institutional players. Meanwhile, the RSI dropping below 30 suggests oversold conditions, yet the move appears driven by technical gamma exposure rather than fundamental news. With 1.7M shares turning over (2.7x average), this represents a significant liquidity event that could exacerbate volatility ahead of the 8/15 expiration cycle.

Energy Sector Mixed Amid Volatility as XOM Gains
While Expand Energy tumbles, Exxon Mobil (XOM) gains 0.19% in a mixed energy sector. The broader oil & gas exploration & production sector remains volatile as global crude prices face pressure from production cuts and hurricane risks. With XOM outperforming but not driving the sector, the sharp decline in EXE appears more technical than sector-driven, as energy stocks generally remain range-bound.

2 Contracts to Capitalize on Volatility
• 200-day average: Empty • 50-day MA: $114.14 (above) • RSI: 26.52 (oversold) • MACD: -2.14 (bearish) • Bollinger Bands: 99.83 (lower band) • Volume: 1.7M (2.7x average)

With the stock trading near its Bollinger Band lower boundary ($99.83) and RSI in oversold territory, the key levels to watch are 105.2 (30-day support) and 105.55 (resistance). The EXE20250815P100 (Put) and EXE20250815C115 (Call) offer high leverage with strong gamma exposure. The put has 40.04% leverage and 4.2% implied volatility, while the call offers 283.58% leverage with 32% IV.

• EXE20250815P100 (Put): Strike $100, Expiry 8/15, IV 33.28%, Lvr 40.04%, Delta -0.3823, Theta -0.023, Gamma 0.042, Turnover 5714
- Put options with -0.38 delta balance directional and volatility exposure, ideal for short-term rebounds
- 5% downside scenario (to $97) yields $3 payoff (max(0,100-97))

• EXE20250815C115 (Call): Strike $115, Expiry 8/15, IV 32.01%, Lvr 283.58%, Delta 0.0918, Theta -0.0364, Gamma 0.0189, Turnover 154k
- Call options with 0.09 delta offer pure volatility play with high leverage potential
- 5% downside scenario (to $97) yields $0 payoff (max(0,97-115))

Aggressive traders should consider EXE20250815P100 for a bounce trade, while EXE20250815C115 offers high-reward potential if volatility spikes. Watch the 105.2 support level and XOM's 0.59% gain for sector context. If $105.2 breaks, EXE20250815P100 offers short-side potential.

Backtest Expand Energy Stock Performance
The backtest of EXE's performance after a -9% intraday plunge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 55.56%, the 10-Day win rate is 61.73%, and the 30-Day win rate is 74.07%. While the maximum return during the backtest period is 6.90% over 30 days, the average returns are relatively modest at 0.37% over 3 days and 1.90% over 10 days. These results suggest that EXE tends to recover from significant intraday drops but at a gradual pace.

Critical Support Test Looms: Buy the Dips or Exit the Dives?
Expand Energy faces an existential test at 99.83 (Bollinger Band) with 30-day support at 105.2 as its immediate lifeline. The 6% selloff has created a volatility wedge that could either reverse with a 3% rebound or break lower toward 97.6 (next support). With Exxon Mobil (XOM) rising 0.19%, energy sector dynamics remain mixed. Traders should prioritize EXE20250815P100 for directional plays and monitor the 105.2 level—break below triggers a 10% risk of testing the 52-week low. Watch for $105.2 breakdown or regulatory reaction.