Evercore Sees $1.5B Revenue Gain for AMD After Trump Lifts China AI Chip Ban

Evercore predicts AMD's revenue will increase by $700 million and potentially $1.5 billion in 2025 after the US Commerce Department lifted its ban on AMD's MI308X chip shipments to China. The firm believes this will boost the company's profitability and gross margins. Analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AMD stock, with an average price target of $135.97 per share.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock surged by 6.64% on Tuesday, July 2, 2025, following the announcement that President Trump had lifted the ban on AI chip sales to China. The ban, previously enforced due to concerns about the Chinese military and AI sector benefits, has now been reversed, allowing AMD to resume shipments of its MI308 chips to the country [1].

The shift in policy comes as relations between the world's top two economies continue to improve. This policy change is a reversal of the Trump administration's stance, which previously tried to toughen Biden-era chip restrictions on China, stating that restrictions on chip sales were not negotiable [1].

Earlier in April, AMD had stated that new licensing requirements to export its MI308 artificial intelligence chips to China may result in charges of up to $800M. However, the U.S. Commerce Department has now informed AMD that license applications for its MI308 chips will move forward for review, indicating that the ban has been lifted [1].

While the Commerce Department has not yet confirmed the change, AMD rival Nvidia has confirmed its ability to sell H20 chips to Chinese customers. Nvidia announced on Monday, July 1, 2025, that it had secured U.S. government assurances that export licenses for its H20 artificial intelligence accelerator would be granted, allowing it to resume sales to China [1].

Analyst Stacy Rasgon reiterated a Hold rating and a $95 price target for AMD, suggesting a 39.3% downside for the shares. Rasgon's analysis indicates that while the lifting of the ban may provide a short-term boost to AMD's stock, the long-term prospects remain uncertain [1].

The lifting of the ban on AI chip sales to China is a significant development for both AMD and Nvidia. For AMD, it represents a potential recovery of substantial revenue that was previously at risk due to government restrictions. For Nvidia, it marks a reversal of its loss of market share in China, which had declined from 95% to 50% due to the ban [1].

The development also highlights the ongoing tensions and negotiations between the U.S. and China over access to advanced technologies. The lifting of the ban on AI chip sales is part of a broader thawing of relations between the two countries, which has also seen the U.S. lift a spate of export controls on chip design software in recent weeks [1].

Evercore, an investment research firm, predicts AMD's revenue will increase by $700 million and potentially $1.5 billion in 2025 after the US Commerce Department lifted its ban on AMD's MI308X chip shipments to China. The firm believes this will boost the company's profitability and gross margins [2]. Analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on AMD stock, with an average price target of $135.97 per share [3].

References:
[1] https://www.ainvest.com/news/amd-stock-rises-trump-reversal-ai-chip-ban-2507/
[2] https://seekingalpha.com/news/4467839-amds-revenue-likely-to-see-upside-in-2025-as-mi308x-chip-set-to-resume-sales-in-china-evercore
[3] https://www.gurufocus.com/news/2981475/amd-amd-sees-potential-15-billion-revenue-upside-with-mi308x-shipments?mod=mw_quote_news&r=4bf001661e6fdd88d0cd7a5659ff9748