Los contratos de eventos ganan mayor claridad regulatoria a medida que la CFTC emite una orden para no tomar ninguna medida al respecto.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has granted a no-action letter to Bitnomial Exchange and Bitnomial Clearinghouse, allowing the crypto derivatives exchange to offer event contracts and prediction markets according to The Block. The decision provides regulatory relief by exempting the platform from strict swap data reporting requirements that are typically impractical for fast-moving prediction markets as reported by Cointelegraph. This move aligns with broader regulatory efforts to accommodate new financial innovations while maintaining oversight and consumer protection according to Bitcoin News.

Bitnomial must still adhere to certain conditions, including publishing transparent consumer-facing data on its website, providing requested data to the CFTC, and ensuring all positions are fully collateralized as detailed by Bitdegree. These requirements aim to maintain liquidity and prevent cascading liquidations during volatile periods. The decision reflects a growing acceptance of prediction markets by US regulators, especially as blockchain technology enables new financial products that were not possible in traditional markets according to Cryptopolitan.

Prediction markets have gained traction in the US, particularly during the 2024 election cycle, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi drawing attention from both institutional investors and the public. The CFTC's decision signals a shift toward clearer regulatory frameworks for these markets, which are expected to expand further as the 2026 midterm elections approach as reported by CryptoNewz.

Why Did This Happen?

The CFTC's action comes amid a broader regulatory strategy to adapt existing rules to modern financial innovations according to Foley. Prediction markets, which allow participants to trade on the outcomes of real-world events, have seen increased interest and investment. For example, Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) invested $2 billion in Polymarket in 2025, and major media outlets like South Park have featured prediction markets in their content as noted by Finance Feeds. The CFTC appears to be recognizing the legitimacy of these markets while ensuring they operate within a transparent and controlled environment.

This decision also reflects a shift in enforcement priorities under CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who took office in December 2025 according to PR Newswire. Selig has emphasized the need for clearer rules for crypto markets, balancing innovation with consumer protection. The no-action letter for Bitnomial follows similar approvals granted to platforms like Gemini Titan, Polymarket US, and MIAX Derivatives Exchange, signaling a consistent approach to regulating prediction markets as mentioned on Twitter.

How Did Markets Respond?

The approval has been welcomed by market participants as a step toward greater clarity and legitimacy for prediction markets according to Yahoo Finance. Bitnomial, which previously became the first exchange to list CFTC-approved spot cryptocurrency products in December 2025, is now well-positioned to compete with offshore platforms like Polymarket as reported by CryptoNewz. The no-action letter removes a major regulatory barrier, allowing Bitnomial to expand its services to US customers without the compliance burdens associated with traditional derivatives markets.

Industry experts view the CFTC's decision as a positive development for market participants and investors. The regulatory clarity provided by the no-action letter reduces uncertainty and supports the growth of prediction markets, which are expected to see increased activity ahead of the 2026 midterm elections according to Cointelegraph.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Analysts are closely monitoring how the CFTC's decision will influence the broader adoption of prediction markets in the US according to Cryptopolitan. The success of platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, combined with the recent investment from ICE, suggests that institutional interest in these markets is growing. Analysts are also watching how other regulatory bodies, including the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), will respond to the expansion of prediction markets as discussed by Foley.

The CFTC's approach under Chair Selig could set a precedent for how prediction markets are regulated moving forward. If the agency continues to issue no-action letters to compliant platforms, it may encourage more firms to enter the space, potentially leading to a more competitive and innovative market for event-based derivatives as reported by CryptoNewz.

The regulatory environment for prediction markets remains fluid, with potential legislative changes also on the horizon. For example, the ORACLE Act has been reintroduced in the New York State Assembly to establish stricter rules for platforms offering prediction markets as noted on Twitter. Analysts will be watching for further regulatory guidance and legislative developments that could shape the future of this market.