Evaxion Soars 31.67% on Merck Licensing Deal – What’s Next?

Summary
• Evaxion (EVAX) surges 31.67% intraday, trading at $4.345 after a $7.5M upfront payment from Merck for its EVX-B3 vaccine candidate.
• The stock’s intraday range spans $3.91 to $4.75, with a 1479% surge in turnover, signaling intense short-term interest.
• Merck’s licensing deal includes up to $592M in milestones and royalties, extending Evaxion’s cash runway to mid-2027.

Evaxion’s stock has erupted on news of Merck’s licensing agreement for its AI-discovered vaccine candidate EVX-B3. The deal, which includes a $7.5M upfront payment and potential milestone payments of $592M, has triggered a 31.67% intraday rally. With the stock trading at $4.345, investors are scrambling to assess whether this surge is a fleeting spike or the start of a sustained bull run.

Merck’s Licensing of EVX-B3 Ignites Massive Share Surge
Evaxion’s 31.67% intraday jump is directly tied to Merck’s $7.5M upfront payment for the EVX-B3 vaccine candidate, a preclinical asset targeting a pathogen with no existing vaccines. The deal, part of a 2024 partnership, validates Evaxion’s AI-Immunology platform and extends its cash runway to mid-2027. Merck’s decision to assume full development costs for EVX-B3 removes financial risk for Evaxion, while the potential $592M in milestones and royalties creates a high-conviction catalyst. The stock’s explosive move reflects market optimism about the platform’s ability to attract further partnerships, particularly as EVX-B2’s licensing decision looms in 2026.

Biotech Sector Mixed as Evaxion Defies Downward Trend
While the broader biotech sector faces mixed momentum—Thermo Fisher (TMO) fell -1.95% intraday—Evaxion’s 31.67% surge highlights its unique positioning. Unlike TMO’s decline, driven by macroeconomic concerns, Evaxion’s rally stems from a concrete partnership milestone. The sector’s divergence underscores the power of high-conviction, event-driven catalysts in biotech, where small-cap stocks can outperform despite sector-wide headwinds.

Technical Bullishness and ETF Absence Shape Trading Strategy
• MACD: 0.066 (bullish), Signal Line: 0.037, Histogram: 0.029 (positive divergence)
• RSI: 77.08 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $3.24 (upper), $2.92 (middle), $2.61 (lower)
• 200D MA: $2.25 (far below current price), 30D MA: $2.97 (support)

Evaxion’s technicals scream short-term bullish momentum. The RSI at 77.08 suggests overbought conditions, but the MACD’s positive divergence and 200D MA lagging far below the current price indicate a strong continuation bias. Key levels to watch: the intraday high of $4.75 (resistance) and the 200D MA at $2.25 (critical support). With no leveraged ETFs available, investors should focus on the stock’s volatility. The options chain is barren, but a 5% upside scenario (to $4.56) would see a 5% gain, making a long-position strategy viable for those willing to ride the AI-Immunology narrative.

Backtest Evaxion Stock Performance
It turns out that, from 1 Jan 2022 through 25 Sep 2025, Evaxion’s stock (EVAX.O) never logged an intraday Open → Close gain of at least +32 %. Because the qualifying-date list is empty, the event back-test engine cannot compute returns and raises the “division-by-zero” error you saw.Suggested next steps (pick whichever is most relevant to the insight you need):1. Lower the surge threshold (e.g., 25 % or 20 %) and re-run the event back-test. 2. Use daily Close → Close jumps (rather than Open → Close) to capture overnight gap-ups as well. 3. Analyse post-event behaviour after sizeable news releases instead of pure price jumps.Just let me know which adjustment (or any other criterion) you prefer, and I’ll execute the revised back-test for you.

Evaxion’s AI-Driven Momentum – Act Now Before the Next Catalyst
Evaxion’s 31.67% surge is a textbook example of a high-conviction catalyst unlocking value. With Merck’s validation of its AI platform and the EVX-B2 licensing decision pending, the stock is primed for further volatility. Investors should monitor the 200D MA at $2.25 as a critical support level and watch for a breakdown below $3.91 (intraday low) to signal a reversal. Meanwhile, Thermo Fisher’s -1.95% decline highlights sector-wide caution, but Evaxion’s unique partnership-driven model positions it to outperform. For aggressive bulls, entering a long position now could capitalize on the AI-Immunology story before the next partnership announcement.