Pronóstico semanal de EUR/USD: La fortaleza del dólar sigue presionando al euro, mientras se avecinan datos importantes sobre la inflación.

The immediate market backdrop is one of persistent dollar strength. The EUR/USD pair fell 0.7% last week, closing at 1.1636 after a choppy session. This decline underscores a clear market preference for the greenback, even as global growth signals flicker with uncertainty.

The key driver of this resilience was the December US Nonfarm Payroll report, which delivered a classic "choose your own adventure" story. The headline job gain of 50,000 missed expectations, but the broader picture was more balanced. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.4%, and wage growth accelerated hotly to 3.8%. This mix of a soft headline but solid underlying labor market data created a confusing signal for traders.

The market's verdict was decisive: it faded expectations for an immediate January Federal Reserve rate cut. The data suggested the US economy does not need urgent monetary accommodation, keeping the dollar's yield advantage intact. As one analysis noted, this combination helped to fade expectations of a quick change in Federal Reserve policy. The result was a continuation of the dollar's recent breakout, with the DXY index holding key support and pushing higher.

While Eurozone data offered some hope-retail sales and German industrial production beat forecasts-traders largely ignored these positive developments. The focus remained squarely on the dynamics of the US dollar and its central bank. This divergence in market attention cemented the selling pressure on the euro, demonstrating that for now, the path of least resistance is down for EUR/USD.

Inflation Data Schedule: The Upcoming Catalysts

The immediate test for the dollar's recent strength arrives this week. The US Department of Labor is scheduled to release the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on January 13, 2026. This is the first major inflation gauge since the November print, which showed the headline index rising 2.7% year-over-year. The market's reaction will hinge on whether this new data confirms a sustained disinflation trend or shows a stubbornness that could delay the Federal Reserve's anticipated rate-cut cycle.

For the euro, the next major European data point is the Eurostat HICP flash estimate for December, due on January 19, 2026. The flash estimate is expected to show euro area annual inflation cooling to 2.0% from 2.1% in November. This would mark a further step toward the European Central Bank's target, but the focus will be on the underlying components, particularly services inflation, which remains elevated.

These releases are critical because they directly challenge the narrative that has fueled dollar demand. The recent strength in EUR/USD has been built on the expectation that US inflation is cooling enough to justify a Fed pivot. If the US CPI data disappoints and shows inflation re-accelerating, it would likely reinforce the dollar's appeal and extend the current downtrend. Conversely, if the data aligns with the disinflation story, it could open the door for a shift in Fed policy expectations, potentially pressuring the greenback.

The European data serves as a counterpoint. A stronger-than-expected deceleration in eurozone inflation would bolster the ECB's case for its own easing cycle, which could provide a floor for the euro. The market is currently pricing in a significant divergence in monetary policy paths, and these inflation prints will be the first concrete evidence to validate or undermine that setup. The coming weeks will determine whether the dollar's current advantage is a durable structural shift or a temporary pause in a broader trend.

Technical Outlook: A Consolidating Sell Signal

The technical picture for EUR/USD is a classic case of a strong bearish signal meeting oversold conditions, setting up a potential inflection point. The daily chart paints a clear "Strong Sell" picture, with 10 moving average sell signals versus 2 buy signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 37.3, firmly in oversold territory. This combination suggests the recent selling pressure has been severe, but the technical momentum remains decisively negative.

Key levels define the immediate battleground. The market must first overcome the 1.1680 hurdle to relieve the immediate bearish pressure. A break above that level would target the next major resistance at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1730. For now, the pair is consolidating within a narrow range, as noted by traders observing the most narrow range of the past three weeks. This consolidation is critical. It indicates that aggressive algorithmic selling has struggled to suppress the price further, a sign that the most vulnerable long positions may have already been liquidated.

The setup is one of exhaustion. The sharp move down has pushed the pair into oversold territory, yet the technical indicators still favor sellers. This creates a high-stakes scenario: the market is poised between a potential bounce from oversold levels or a break below support to extend the downtrend. The coming session will test whether the recent consolidation holds or if the "Strong Sell" signal reasserts itself. For now, the technicals suggest the path of least resistance remains down, but the market's ability to hold near current lows is the key variable.

Near-Term Catalysts and Risks

The immediate trajectory of EUR/USD hinges on a single, high-stakes event: the release of the December Consumer Price Index data on January 13, 2026. This print will serve as the first concrete test of the disinflation narrative that has underpinned recent dollar strength. If the data shows inflation cooling further, it could validate the market's shift toward pricing in a Fed pivot, potentially triggering a sharp dollar sell-off. Conversely, any sign of re-acceleration would reinforce the case for holding rates steady, extending the current downtrend for the euro.

A more structural risk looms on the horizon. The narrative of "US exceptionalism" that has intermittently revived the dollar is now being challenged by improving global growth expectations. As noted in a recent analysis, improving global growth expectations threaten USD support in 2026, as rising economic surprises could compress the US Treasury yield premium-a core pillar of dollar strength. This sets up a fundamental tension: the dollar's recent rally is built on policy divergence, but a synchronized global recovery could narrow that gap and limit further gains.

For traders, the technical setup provides clear levels to watch. The immediate bearish bias can be challenged by a break above the 1.1680 hurdle. A sustained move above that level would relieve immediate selling pressure and signal a potential shift in momentum. The next major resistance lies at the 20-day Simple Moving Average, currently at 1.1730. The market's ability to hold near current lows, as seen in the most narrow range of the past three weeks, will be a key indicator of whether this is a pause before a deeper decline or the start of a reversal. The coming session will test this fragile equilibrium.