EUR/USD en un momento de cruce técnico y estructural: Evaluación del repunte del dólar

The technical picture for EUR/USD is now at a decisive crossroads. The pair ended the week at 1.1636, its weakest level in months, having fallen 0.20% on Friday. This marks a clear shift from the recent recovery, as sellers have piled in and the daily chart shows a neutral-to-downward bias. The immediate battleground is defined by two critical levels. The first is 1.1670, a key support zone that has now been tested. A break below that level would expose the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1560, a major structural floor that has anchored the long-term downtrend since last year's peak. On the upside, resistance is clear at the 20-day SMA at 1.1730, with the 1.1700 psychological level also acting as a significant barrier.

This dollar strength is not a fundamental re-rating but a technical reaction to positioning ahead of US data. The DXY index has gained over 0.6% in three sessions, driven by market expectations for a weaker US jobs report. Yet the pair is now at a critical juncture. The recent rally has been a short-covering bounce, not a reversal of the underlying trend. The setup is now one of fragile equilibrium. A decisive break below the 1.1600 support zone would signal that the sellers have taken control, likely triggering a cascade toward the 200-day SMA and the 1.15 level. Conversely, holding above 1.1670 could allow for a pause and a test of the 1.17 barrier. For now, the technical narrative is one of a market waiting for a catalyst to choose its next major direction.

The Data-Driven Catalyst: NFP and Early Q1 Signals

The immediate catalyst for the dollar's rebound is now in the pipeline. Tomorrow's US Non-Farm Payrolls report is the single most important event on the calendar, and market positioning is already skewed toward a specific outcome. The consensus expects job creation of around 60,000, slightly below the previous month's 64,000. Yet the broader context is one of softness. The December print itself was a disappointment, with the economy adding just 50,000 jobs, well below forecasts. That data, combined with a declining housing market, has already contributed to the dollar's recent weakness and a bearish strategist outlook.

The market's current expectation is that a weak NFP will reinforce the narrative of a resilient labor market that justifies a restrictive Fed stance. This is the precise dynamic driving the DXY's three-session winning streak. If the report confirms that pace, it could solidify the probability of a neutral rate stance through March and extend the dollar's bounce. The risk, however, is a strong print. A significantly better-than-expected jobs number would likely trigger a sharp reversal, as it would undermine the very expectation of Fed easing that is currently supporting the greenback. In that scenario, the dollar's recent rally would look like a classic short-covering event, not a sustainable trend.

Beyond the headline NFP, early January provides a suite of data to gauge the durability of this rebound. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, due this week, will be a key test of growth momentum. A firm reading, particularly in new orders, would support the narrative of continued economic resilience and could weigh on equity valuations, tightening financial conditions and providing a tailwind for the dollar. Conversely, a slowdown in manufacturing would add to the soft data theme and pressure the dollar further.

Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report for January will offer a timely read on inflation expectations and consumer confidence. A stronger-than-expected reading could signal that underlying demand remains robust, supporting the case for higher-for-longer rates. All of these early signals will help determine whether the dollar's technical bounce is just a pause in a longer downtrend or the start of a new phase. For now, the market is betting on the former, but the data will soon tell the real story.

The Structural Backdrop: De-dollarization and Transactional Dominance

The technical bounce in the dollar is a fleeting event against a powerful, long-term structural current. While the pair tests key support levels, the deeper narrative is one of a gradual but persistent shift in the global financial architecture. The dollar's role as the world's primary reserve currency is being challenged, even as its dominance in day-to-day transactions remains formidable.

The clearest signal of this structural change is in central bank portfolios. The share of U.S. dollars in global foreign exchange reserves has fallen to a two-decade low. This is the essence of de-dollarization: a strategic reallocation away from the greenback as a store of value. The trend is driven by geopolitical diversification and a desire to reduce exposure to U.S. policy, whether fiscal, tariff-related, or monetary. This erosion of the dollar's reserve status is a fundamental shift, distinct from the cyclical demand for safety that can surge during crises.

Yet, for all its reserve currency status, the dollar's transactional dominance is still immense. It remains the currency of choice for 48% of global trade invoicing and 70% of foreign currency debt issuance. This entrenched use in trade and finance creates a powerful inertia. The system is not broken; it is simply being supplemented. The de-dollarization trend is most visible in commodity markets, where a large and growing proportion of energy is being priced in non-dollar-denominated contracts. This is the slow, steady creep of alternatives into the core plumbing of the global economy.

This duality defines the strategic outlook. The technical rebound, fueled by short-covering and data expectations, does not reverse this structural drift. In fact, it may even accelerate it. As the dollar strengthens on a temporary basis, it can prompt further diversification by central banks and corporates seeking to hedge against a potential reversal. The persistent bearishness among currency strategists underscores this view. A recent Reuters poll shows the euro rising about 1% per quarter, with a median forecast of $1.20 by year-end. The reasoning is clear: the Fed's easing bias, fiscal expansion, and questions over its independence are seen as longer-term headwinds for the greenback.

The bottom line is that the dollar's current technical strength is a tactical pause, not a strategic victory. The structural forces of de-dollarization are unfolding in the background, reshaping the demand for the currency over decades, not days. For now, the transactional dominance provides a buffer, but the reserve currency erosion is a more profound and lasting trend. The market's focus on the next NFP report is understandable, but the real story for 2026 is the gradual, irreversible shift in the global financial order.

Catalysts and Scenarios: Pathways for EUR/USD

The coming weeks will test whether the dollar's technical bounce is a fleeting reprieve or the start of a sustained reversal. The path forward hinges on a clear set of scenarios, each with distinct implications for risk management.

The most critical technical inflection point is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). For over a decade, the index has found support near 98, a level that has acted as a structural floor since 2011–2012. A failure to hold this zone on a multi-week closing basis would signal a breakdown of this long-term trend, potentially exposing support at 94–92. That would represent a regime-level shift, likely triggering a broad-based sell-off in dollar-denominated assets. Conversely, a sustained hold and rally above 98 could confirm a pause in the downtrend, allowing for a test of the 1.1700–1.1730 resistance zone in EUR/USD.

On the pair itself, the immediate bearish target is clear. A decisive break below the 1.1600 support zone would expose the 200-day simple moving average at 1.1565 and the key psychological level of 1.1500. This would validate the beginning of a more pronounced downtrend, aligning with the bearish strategist consensus. The recent test of the 1.1670 support zone is a warning shot; failure there would set the stage for this deeper move lower.

The key structural risk is that the technical rebound fails to hold. If the dollar's short-covering rally stalls, the powerful de-dollarization narrative and soft US data will reassert control. This scenario is the one most forecasters are pricing in. A Reuters poll shows the euro rising about 1% per quarter, with a median forecast of $1.20 by year-end. The reasoning is straightforward: persistent concerns over Fed independence, fiscal expansion, and a potential easing bias create a longer-term headwind for the greenback. In this path, the recent bounce looks like a classic dead cat bounce, and the pair would drift toward its 2026 forecast.

For risk management, the framework is now defined. The primary trade setup is a bearish bias, with a clear downside target. Traders should watch for a break below 1.1600 to confirm the trend. The secondary, higher-probability scenario is a failed rebound, where the dollar's technical strength proves temporary against the structural tide. In that case, the path of least resistance is down, with the 200-day SMA at 1.1565 as a near-term floor. The bottom line is that the technical setup is fragile, but the structural outlook remains bearish. The coming data and price action will determine which narrative takes the lead.