ETHUSDT Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Shifts on Ethereum/Tether

Summary• Price fell from 3470.2 to 3322.95 with key support at 3180.39.• Volatility spiked during the 2030–2145 ET window, with a 1130-point swing.• Volume surged during bearish momentum, peaking at 83442.2995.• RSI entered oversold territory, hinting at potential short-term reversal.• Price appears to have found near-term support at 3200–3250 level.

Ethereum/Tether (ETHUSDT) opened at 3470.2 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3322.95 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05, with a high of 3470.99 and a low of 3125.0. Total 24-hour volume was 918,109.368, and notional turnover amounted to $3,036,204,094. The price moved within a clear bearish trend, with several 15-minute candles showing bearish engulfing patterns and sharp retracements after brief rallies.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed bearish engulfing patterns and sharp retracements, especially between 20:30 and 21:45 ET, indicating strong selling pressure. Key support levels emerged at 3200–3250, where ETHUSDT found temporary refuge after the 3125.0 low. Resistance appears at 3350–3400, with bearish rejection signs after multiple tests. A bullish harami pattern emerged near the 3350 level in the morning, suggesting potential short-term buyers may be emerging.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both remained above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA, signaling a bearish trend continuation. Price currently trades below all key short- and medium-term moving averages, suggesting the downtrend remains intact for now.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained bearish across the 15-minute chart, with a wide negative histogram and a bearish crossover. RSI hit an oversold level of 28 during the 21:45–22:00 ET window, hinting at a potential short-term bounce. However, RSI failed to hold above 50, suggesting bearish momentum remains dominant for the immediate future.

Bollinger Bands

ETHUSDT traded near the lower Bollinger Band between 20:30 and 21:45 ET, indicating high volatility and bearish consolidation. A contraction occurred between 04:00 and 06:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion and breakdown to the lower band, signaling increased volatility. The recent rebound has moved price closer to the middle band, suggesting a potential sideways consolidation could follow.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during bearish moves, with the highest 15-minute volume reaching 83,442.2995 at 20:30 ET. Turnover mirrored volume patterns, with a sharp drop in volume during the 05:00–06:00 ET window indicating a lack of conviction in the short-term rebound. Price and volume appear to be aligned during bearish moves, confirming the strength of the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements on the 3470.2–3125.0 swing show ETHUSDT currently hovering near the 61.8% level at 3242.59. A bounce from this level could extend the 24-hour range but is likely to face renewed bearish pressure unless buyers manage to push price above 3350. The 38.2% level at 3315.3 is also a potential area of near-term resistance and possible consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest results for the “Bullish Engulfing / 1-Day Hold” strategy on the ETHUSDT pair illustrate the potential for a momentum-based approach in volatile crypto markets. By triggering long entries only on days where a Bullish Engulfing candle forms, the strategy seeks to capitalize on short-term bullish reversals. The use of a fixed 1-day holding period simplifies trade execution and avoids extended exposure to unpredictable crypto price swings. This approach aligns with the observed 15-minute chart patterns, particularly the bearish engulfing and harami formations, which may hint at future trade signals if reversed. Further refinement could include adding stop-loss or take-profit thresholds or benchmarking the strategy against a baseline “Hold” approach.