ETHJPY Market Overview: Ethereum/Yen Breaks Key Support Amid Increased Volatility

• Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) traded lower over 24 hours with a key swing low formed at 665,532.0 Yen.
• A bearish breakdown below 680,000.0 Yen confirmed, with volume intensifying during the decline.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions emerged near 28, while MACD turned negative with bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands contracted early in the session before expanding with a sharp selloff after 02:30 ET.
• Turnover spiked during the breakdown phase, supporting the move toward 665,885.0 Yen.

Ethereum/Yen (ETHJPY) opened at 681,035.0 Yen on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 669,396.0 Yen on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 696,643.0 and a low of 665,532.0 Yen during the 24-hour period. Total volume for the session was 2,187.903 ETH, with a notional turnover of approximately ¥1,492,635,000 (based on weighted average prices).

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a strong bearish structure as ETHJPY broke below key support at 680,000.0 Yen, previously acting as a pivot for bullish momentum. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:30 ET, confirming the shift in sentiment. A large bearish candle at 02:30 ET (675,844.0 → 665,885.0) marked a critical breakdown candle, with volume increasing to 204.45 ETH, a session high. A doji near the daily close at 12:00 ET indicates indecision but appears to signal exhaustion after the sharp decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, which were at approximately 682,500.0 and 684,000.0 Yen, respectively. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs (assumed from 15-minute OHLC data extrapolation) were at ~687,000.0, 689,000.0, and 690,000.0 Yen, respectively. ETHJPY is now deeply bearish against all multi-day moving averages, indicating short- to medium-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The 12/26 MACD turned negative during the morning ET session and crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI fell to 28 near the session close, suggesting oversold conditions. However, this may not necessarily trigger a reversal unless accompanied by a bullish reversal pattern or a strong volume spike. MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence with price as the selloff accelerated during the breakdown phase.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands exhibited a contraction phase between 19:00 and 20:00 ET before expanding significantly after the breakdown at 02:30 ET. Price closed below the lower band on 2025-10-09, signaling a continuation of the bearish move. The 20-period volatility (assumed from 15-minute data) rose from ~1,500 to ~8,000 Yen during the breakdown, indicating increased fear or panic-driven selling.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown phase at 02:30 ET, with 204.45 ETH traded in that candle and a total turnover of ¥140,967,000. This confirms the bearish breakdown. The volume during the earlier bullish phase (17:00–19:45 ET) was relatively lighter, suggesting a lack of conviction in the rally. The divergence between volume and price during the earlier rally supports the bearish case.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels applied to the recent swing from 665,532.0 to 696,643.0 Yen showed key levels at 685,540.0 (38.2%), 680,536.0 (50%), and 675,532.0 (61.8%). ETHJPY broke below the 680,536.0 level on 2025-10-09, confirming bearish continuation. A potential rebound may test the 675,532.0 level before the next major support at 665,532.0 Yen.

Backtest Hypothesis

If a backtesting strategy were to use a combination of RSI (14) and a breakdown of the 50-period EMA with confirmation from volume spikes, the breakdown on 2025-10-09 would have triggered a sell signal. Assuming a stop-loss above the 685,540.0 Fib level and a take-profit target at 665,532.0, the trade would have yielded a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Incorporating Bollinger Band width as a filter for entering the trade would have enhanced the signal by isolating the high-volatility phase.